Minnesota Timberwolves at Charlotte Hornets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Julius RandlePoints30
- Jaden McDanielsAssists6
- Rudy GobertRebounds15
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints30
- LaMelo BallAssists8
- Moussa DiabateRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–105
- Q46.3Terrence Shannon Jr. defensive rebound122–105
- Q49.8Ryan Kalkbrenner misses free throw 2 of 2122–105
- Q49.8Hornets offensive team rebound122–105
- Q49.8Ryan Kalkbrenner misses free throw 1 of 2122–105
- Q49.8Bones Hyland personal foul122–105
- Q414.8Rob Dillingham bad pass (Tre Mann steals)122–105
- Q434.4Sion James makes 24-foot three point jumper (Tre Mann assists)122–105
- Q445.0Johnny Juzang makes 25-foot three point jumper (Rob Dillingham assists)122–102
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q21:41Miles Bridges makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kon Knueppel assists)MIN 48 – 51 CHA · CHA 40% → 49% +8CHA 40% → 49%+8 pts
- Q21:22Kon Knueppel makes 22-foot three point shot (LaMelo Ball assists)MIN 48 – 54 CHA · CHA 49% → 57% +9CHA 49% → 57%+9 pts
- Q39:27Jaden McDaniels makes 25-foot three point jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)MIN 61 – 62 CHA · MIN 46% → 56% +9MIN 46% → 56%+9 pts
- Q35:20Julius Randle makes 26-foot three point jumperMIN 72 – 70 CHA · MIN 54% → 65% +10MIN 54% → 65%+10 pts
- Q33:40Donte DiVincenzo makes 25-foot three point jumper (Rudy Gobert assists)MIN 77 – 72 CHA · MIN 65% → 74% +10MIN 65% → 74%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 63%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -4.5
- ML MIN -190 / CHA +160
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -1
- MIN 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.8 pts
- MIN: Elo 54.3%, market 63.0%
- Fair odds
- MIN -170
- CHA +170 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 120.0 – 115.5 CHA
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | CHA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1578 | 1344 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −65 | +91 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIN crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIN +30 Elo | MIN 54.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 59.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 59.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 63.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | CHA |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 30114.2 | Points scored | 124.04th of 30 |
| 18th of 30119.0 | Points allowed | 124.428th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−4.8 | Margin | −0.415th of 30 |
| 18th of 30112.3 | Offense rating | 117.76th of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.1 | Defense rating | 118.127th of 30 |
| 19th of 30101.8 | Pace | 105.46th of 30 |
| 8th of 291–1 | Road vs home | 1–115th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301554 | Opponent Elo | 141830th of 30 |
| 5th of 301578 | Elo rating | 134429th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−65 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hornets
+91 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  CHA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 0–5 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 0–5 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–1 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–1 | 4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 3–1 CHA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.