Utah Jazz at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Lauri MarkkanenPoints33
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists9
- Walker KesslerRebounds13
Suns- Devin BookerPoints36
- Devin BookerAssists9
- Ryan DunnRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game96–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter96–118
- Q419.4Walter Clayton Jr. makes 25-foot running pullup jump shot (Ace Bailey assists)96–118
- Q423.9Ace Bailey defensive rebound93–118
- Q427.3Rasheer Fleming misses 23-foot three point jumper93–118
- Q433.7Collin Gillespie defensive rebound93–118
- Q433.7Khaman Maluach blocks Kyle Filipowski 's 3-foot two point shot93–118
- Q439.5Nigel Hayes-Davis makes 6-foot two point shot93–118
- Q440.1Nigel Hayes-Davis offensive rebound93–116
- Q444.2Rasheer Fleming misses 25-foot three point jumper93–116
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q15:46Lauri Markkanen makes 26-foot three point jumper (Ace Bailey assists)UTAH 9 – 11 PHX · UTAH 32% → 38% +6UTAH 32% → 38%+6 pts
- Q15:23Keyonte George makes 22-foot three point jumper (Ace Bailey assists)UTAH 12 – 11 PHX · UTAH 38% → 45% +7UTAH 38% → 45%+7 pts
- Q14:24Brice Sensabaugh makes 30-foot three pointerUTAH 15 – 14 PHX · UTAH 38% → 45% +7UTAH 38% → 45%+7 pts
- Q14:12Devin Booker makes 24-foot three point jumper (Collin Gillespie assists)UTAH 15 – 17 PHX · PHX 55% → 62% +7PHX 55% → 62%+7 pts
- Q12:57Collin Gillespie makes 28-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)UTAH 15 – 24 PHX · PHX 70% → 76% +6PHX 70% → 76%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Suns 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- PHX -3.5
- ML UTAH +130 / PHX -150
- Pre-line forecast
- PHX 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- UTAH -0.5
- PHX 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.5 pts
- PHX: Elo 48.5%, market 58.0%
- Fair odds
- PHX -138
- UTAH +138 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 116.5 – 120.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1415 | 1454 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +28 | −57 | UTAH: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | UTAH +10 Elo | UTAH 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHX 55.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHX 54.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHX 58.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30126.3 | Points scored | 116.018th of 30 |
| 21st of 30120.8 | Points allowed | 126.028th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+5.5 | Margin | −10.026th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30120.1 | Offense rating | 109.425th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 118.828th of 30 |
| 18th of 30102.4 | Pace | 103.811th of 30 |
| 22nd of 290–1 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 30 |
| 18th of 301493 | Opponent Elo | 150612th of 30 |
| 26th of 301415 | Elo rating | 145422nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
+28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  UTAH |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 41–40 | 32–50 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 19–25 |
| Underdog | 40–38 | 13–25 |
| Overs–unders | 48–34 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 1–8 PHX in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 9.
- Oct 27PHX 134 @ UTAH 138Picked UTAH 53%Hit
- Feb 7UTAH 127 @ PHX 135Picked PHX 71%Hit
- Jan 11UTAH 106 @ PHX 114Picked PHX 83%Hit
- Dec 13PHX 134 @ UTAH 126Picked PHX 70%Hit
- Nov 12PHX 120 @ UTAH 112Picked PHX 64%Hit
- Feb 8UTAH 115 @ PHX 129Picked UTAH 53%Miss
- Nov 19PHX 140 @ UTAH 137Picked PHX 53%Hit
- Nov 17PHX 131 @ UTAH 128Picked PHX 50%Hit