Washington Wizards at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- CJ McCollumPoints19
- Kyshawn GeorgeAssists6
- Bilal CoulibalyRebounds8
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints31
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists7
- Jaylin WilliamsRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game108–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter108–127
- Q420.0Tre Johnson makes 15-foot two point shot108–127
- Q434.2Tristan Vukcevic defensive rebound106–127
- Q437.2Chris Youngblood misses 22-foot three point jumper106–127
- Q452.6Branden Carlson defensive rebound106–127
- Q454.9Justin Champagnie misses 25-foot three point jumper106–127
- Q459.9Justin Champagnie offensive rebound106–127
- Q41:03Tre Johnson misses 27-foot three point jumper106–127
- Q41:10Wizards offensive team rebound106–127
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:34Marvin Bagley III makes 1-foot alley oop dunk shot (Corey Kispert assists)WSH 81 – 83 OKC · WSH 15% → 20% +5WSH 15% → 20%+5 pts
- Q31:13Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three point jumper (Alex Caruso assists)WSH 81 – 86 OKC · OKC 80% → 87% +7OKC 80% → 87%+7 pts
- Q347.7Ajay Mitchell makes 24-foot three point jumper (Isaiah Joe assists)WSH 81 – 89 OKC · OKC 87% → 92% +5OKC 87% → 92%+5 pts
- Q36.7Marvin Bagley III makes 23-foot three point jumper (Corey Kispert assists)WSH 84 – 89 OKC · WSH 7% → 13% +5WSH 7% → 13%+5 pts
- Q31.2Jaylin Williams makes 23-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)WSH 84 – 92 OKC · OKC 87% → 93% +5OKC 87% → 93%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 89%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 85–90% have won 91.7% of 217 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -15.5
- ML WSH +750 / OKC -1400
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 90%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -11
- OKC 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- OKC: Elo 85.5%, market 88.8%
- Fair odds
- OKC -793
- WSH +793 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 108.0 – 123.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1333 | 1667 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | 0 | −61 | WSH: Usual rotation · OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +309 Elo | OKC 85.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 90.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 89.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 88.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30121.0 | Points scored | 118.215th of 30 |
| 30th of 30129.5 | Points allowed | 110.85th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−8.5 | Margin | +7.46th of 30 |
| 25th of 30109.7 | Offense rating | 109.922nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30117.4 | Defense rating | 103.01st of 30 |
| 4th of 30107.4 | Pace | 99.127th of 30 |
| 8th of 291–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
| 28th of 301439 | Opponent Elo | 149713th of 30 |
| 30th of 301333 | Elo rating | 16671st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
0 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−61 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  WSH |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 35–47 | 67–39 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 0–3 | 64–38 |
| Underdog | 35–44 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 40–42 | 57–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–4 OKC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.