Sacramento Kings at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Zach LaVinePoints23
- Russell WestbrookAssists4
- Domantas SabonisRebounds18
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints31
- Aaron WigginsAssists6
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–107
- Q47.5Isaiah Hartenstein defensive rebound101–107
- Q410.7Dennis Schroder misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot101–107
- Q416.0Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot101–107
- Q436.4Domantas Sabonis makes 1-foot layup (Zach LaVine assists)101–104
- Q446.1Malik Monk enters the game for Russell Westbrook99–104
- Q446.1Ajay Mitchell enters the game for Aaron Wiggins99–104
- Q446.1Kings Full timeout99–104
- Q446.7Alex Caruso makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Wiggins assists)99–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:24Ajay Mitchell makes 27-foot three pointerSAC 89 – 88 OKC · OKC 43% → 57% +15OKC 43% → 57%+15 pts
- Q46:37Zach LaVine makes 25-foot three point jumperSAC 97 – 90 OKC · SAC 61% → 76% +15SAC 61% → 76%+15 pts
- Q43:59Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 1-foot two point shotSAC 97 – 96 OKC · OKC 37% → 51% +14OKC 37% → 51%+14 pts
- Q42:33Luguentz Dort makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)SAC 97 – 99 OKC · OKC 48% → 73% +26OKC 48% → 73%+26 pts
- Q446.7Alex Caruso makes 25-foot three point jumper (Aaron Wiggins assists)SAC 99 – 104 OKC · OKC 82% → 98% +16OKC 82% → 98%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -8.5
- ML SAC +320 / OKC -425
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -5
- OKC 69%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.4 pts
- OKC: Elo 68.8%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- OKC -340
- SAC +340 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 109.0 – 117.5 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1486 | 1663 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −14 | −73 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | SAC crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +138 Elo | OKC 68.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 73.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 73.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 77.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30113.7 | Points scored | 121.011th of 30 |
| 13th of 30117.0 | Points allowed | 113.37th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−3.3 | Margin | +7.85th of 30 |
| 24th of 30108.3 | Offense rating | 111.020th of 30 |
| 10th of 30111.5 | Defense rating | 103.92nd of 30 |
| 12th of 30104.9 | Pace | 98.728th of 30 |
| 19th of 290–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301476 | Opponent Elo | 149916th of 30 |
| 19th of 301486 | Elo rating | 16631st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−14 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−73 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  SAC |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–46 | 67–39 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–30 | 64–38 |
| Underdog | 13–16 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 43–39 | 57–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 2–5 OKC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.