Orlando Magic at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints28
- Franz WagnerAssists6
- Wendell Carter Jr.Rebounds12
Wizards- Kyshawn GeorgePoints17
- Bub CarringtonAssists5
- Alex SarrRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–94
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–94
- Q41.0shot clock turnover125–94
- Q423.5Jase Richardson defensive rebound125–94
- Q425.4Tristan Vukcevic misses 11-foot jumper125–94
- Q433.8Goga Bitadze makes 2-foot dunk (Jett Howard assists)125–94
- Q444.0Tristan Vukcevic out of bounds bad pass turnover123–94
- Q457.8Noah Penda makes 27-foot three point jumper (Jett Howard assists)123–94
- Q41:02Noah Penda defensive rebound120–94
- Q41:06Noah Penda blocks Anthony Gill 's 2-foot driving layup120–94
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q16:35Wendell Carter Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Desmond Bane assists)ORL 17 – 14 WSH · ORL 74% → 79% +5ORL 74% → 79%+5 pts
- Q14:13Cam Whitmore makes 26-foot three point jumperORL 21 – 21 WSH · WSH 21% → 26% +5WSH 21% → 26%+5 pts
- Q12:43Cam Whitmore makes 33-foot three point shot (Bub Carrington assists)ORL 23 – 28 WSH · WSH 31% → 37% +6WSH 31% → 37%+6 pts
- Q11:58Bub Carrington makes 27-foot three point jumper (Marvin Bagley III assists)ORL 25 – 31 WSH · WSH 33% → 40% +7WSH 33% → 40%+7 pts
- Q11:20Franz Wagner makes 26-foot three pointerORL 30 – 33 WSH · ORL 60% → 67% +7ORL 60% → 67%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -9.5
- ML ORL -380 / WSH +290
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -5.5
- ORL 71%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- ORL: Elo 71.2%, market 75.5%
- Fair odds
- ORL -309
- WSH +309 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 121.5 – 112.0 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1472 | 1329 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +44 | +5 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | WSH crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | ORL +157 Elo | ORL 71.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 78.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 77.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 75.5% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 118.414th of 30 |
| 20th of 30120.0 | Points allowed | 129.030th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−4.5 | Margin | −10.627th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30111.2 | Offense rating | 109.027th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.5 | Defense rating | 118.728th of 30 |
| 11th of 30103.6 | Pace | 106.25th of 30 |
| 16th of 291–2 | Road vs home | 0–225th of 30 |
| 27th of 301470 | Opponent Elo | 148322nd of 30 |
| 21st of 301472 | Elo rating | 132930th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–5 | 1–4 |
| Last 10 | 1–5 | 1–4 |
| Favorite | 1–5 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | — | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 3–3 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–3 | 4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 8–0 WSH in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 8.
- Apr 3ORL 109 @ WSH 97Picked ORL 90%Hit
- Mar 21ORL 120 @ WSH 105Picked ORL 75%Hit
- Feb 23WSH 90 @ ORL 110Picked ORL 85%Hit
- Nov 10WSH 94 @ ORL 121Picked ORL 83%Hit
- Mar 6ORL 119 @ WSH 109Picked ORL 73%Hit
- Dec 26ORL 127 @ WSH 119Picked ORL 61%Hit
- Dec 1WSH 125 @ ORL 130Picked ORL 78%Hit
- Nov 29WSH 120 @ ORL 139Picked ORL 76%Hit