Washington Wizards at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Karl-Anthony TownsPoints33
- Jalen BrunsonAssists9
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds13
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game102–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter102–119
- Q415.2Pacome Dadiet defensive rebound102–119
- Q418.6
Tristan Vukcevic misses 25-foot three point jumper102–119 - Q428.1Landry Shamet makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mohamed Diawara assists)102–119
- Q438.5Ariel Hukporti defensive rebound102–116
- Q440.0AJ Johnson misses two point shot102–116
- Q450.4Tyler Kolek makes 4-foot two point shot (Ariel Hukporti assists)102–116
- Q41:10Ariel Hukporti defensive rebound102–114
- Q41:13Malaki Branham misses free throw 2 of 2102–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14.4Corey Kispert makes 22-foot three point jumper (Bub Carrington assists)WSH 30 – 22 NY · WSH 28% → 35% +6WSH 28% → 35%+6 pts
- Q211:17Miles McBride makes 26-foot three point jumper (Karl-Anthony Towns assists)WSH 32 – 25 NY · NY 60% → 67% +7NY 60% → 67%+7 pts
- Q256.2Bilal Coulibaly makes 23-foot three point jumper (Alex Sarr assists)WSH 51 – 50 NY · WSH 19% → 26% +6WSH 19% → 26%+6 pts
- Q225.6OG Anunoby makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)WSH 54 – 53 NY · NY 66% → 74% +8NY 66% → 74%+8 pts
- Q20.4Karl-Anthony Towns makes 28-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)WSH 54 – 56 NY · NY 74% → 80% +7NY 74% → 80%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- NY -13.5
- ML WSH +500 / NY -800
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 84%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NY -9
- NY 81%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.3 pts
- NY: Elo 80.9%, market 84.2%
- Fair odds
- NY -533
- WSH +533 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 110.5 – 124.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1318 | 1567 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | NY on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −24 | −20 | WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | NY +251 Elo | NY 80.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 84.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 84.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 84.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30114.3 | Points scored | 115.820th of 30 |
| 30th of 30128.3 | Points allowed | 115.59th of 30 |
| 28th of 30−14.0 | Margin | +0.317th of 30 |
| 29th of 30105.1 | Offense rating | 115.213th of 30 |
| 28th of 30117.9 | Defense rating | 114.821st of 30 |
| 3rd of 30106.7 | Pace | 100.424th of 30 |
| 16th of 291–2 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 30 |
| 22nd of 301490 | Opponent Elo | 15602nd of 30 |
| 30th of 301318 | Elo rating | 15677th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–5 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 1–5 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 2–3 |
| Underdog | 1–4 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 0–7 NY in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 7.