New York Knicks at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints36
- Mikal BridgesAssists6
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds12
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints37
- Cole AnthonyAssists9
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–121
- Q416.1OG Anunoby out of bounds bad pass turnover110–121
- Q423.7Ryan Rollins makes free throw 2 of 2110–121
- Q423.7Ryan Rollins makes free throw 1 of 2110–120
- Q423.7Landry Shamet personal foul110–119
- Q427.3Mikal Bridges makes two point shot110–119
- Q427.4Mikal Bridges offensive rebound108–119
- Q430.2Jalen Brunson misses 13-foot pullup jump shot108–119
- Q437.3Giannis Antetokounmpo personal foul108–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:04Taurean Prince makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cole Anthony assists)NY 88 – 93 MIL · MIL 55% → 67% +11MIL 55% → 67%+11 pts
- Q316.5Jordan Clarkson makes 29-foot three pointer (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 91 – 93 MIL · NY 33% → 44% +12NY 33% → 44%+12 pts
- Q410:45Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Hart assists)NY 94 – 96 MIL · NY 31% → 44% +12NY 31% → 44%+12 pts
- Q46:15Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 1-foot dunkNY 102 – 103 MIL · MIL 37% → 54% +17MIL 37% → 54%+17 pts
- Q45:31Giannis Antetokounmpo makes two point shot (Cole Anthony assists)NY 102 – 105 MIL · MIL 54% → 66% +12MIL 54% → 66%+12 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- NY -2.5
- ML NY -135 / MIL +115
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -1.5
- NY 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.6 pts
- NY: Elo 43.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NY -124
- MIL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 116.5 – 114.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1570 | 1541 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −29 | +9 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +44 Elo | MIL 56.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 51.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30110.3 | Points scored | 122.78th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.0 | Points allowed | 118.015th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+3.3 | Margin | +4.711th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30109.0 | Offense rating | 116.410th of 30 |
| 5th of 30105.7 | Defense rating | 111.912th of 30 |
| 24th of 30100.9 | Pace | 105.49th of 30 |
| 19th of 290–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301580 | Opponent Elo | 146025th of 30 |
| 6th of 301570 | Elo rating | 154112th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+9 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  NY |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 50–50 | 47–41 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 38–35 | 29–28 |
| Underdog | 12–15 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders | 51–49 | 46–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 5–3 MIL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Mar 28NY 116 @ MIL 107Picked MIL 51%Miss
- Jan 12MIL 106 @ NY 140Picked NY 62%Hit
- Nov 8MIL 94 @ NY 116Picked NY 69%Hit
- Apr 7NY 122 @ MIL 109Picked MIL 54%Miss
- Dec 25MIL 122 @ NY 129Picked MIL 58%Miss
- Dec 23MIL 130 @ NY 111Picked MIL 53%Hit
- Dec 5NY 122 @ MIL 146Picked MIL 63%Hit
- Nov 3NY 105 @ MIL 110Picked MIL 60%Hit