New York Knicks at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints29
- Jalen BrunsonAssists7
- Mitchell RobinsonRebounds11
Bulls- Josh GiddeyPoints32
- Josh GiddeyAssists9
- Josh GiddeyRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–135
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–135
- Q41.2OG Anunoby makes driving layup125–135
- Q412.3Kevin Huerter makes free throw 1 of 1123–135
- Q412.3OG Anunoby shooting foul123–134
- Q412.3Kevin Huerter makes 7-foot two point shot (Josh Giddey assists)123–134
- Q418.3Jalen Brunson makes driving layup123–132
- Q426.1Tre Jones makes free throw 2 of 2121–132
- Q426.1Karl-Anthony Towns enters the game for Landry Shamet121–131
- Q426.1Tre Jones makes free throw 1 of 2121–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:53Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 104 – 109 CHI · NY 19% → 31% +12NY 19% → 31%+12 pts
- Q46:23OG Anunoby makes 24-foot three point jumper (Miles McBride assists)NY 110 – 113 CHI · NY 23% → 38% +15NY 23% → 38%+15 pts
- Q45:43OG Anunoby makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 113 – 115 CHI · NY 26% → 43% +17NY 26% → 43%+17 pts
- Q45:15Ayo Dosunmu makes 26-foot three point jumper (Patrick Williams assists)NY 113 – 118 CHI · CHI 58% → 75% +17CHI 58% → 75%+17 pts
- Q44:28Mikal Bridges makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jalen Brunson assists)NY 116 – 120 CHI · NY 14% → 28% +14NY 14% → 28%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- NY -5.5
- ML NY -195 / CHI +165
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -3
- NY 39%
- Ratings vs. market
- −25.0 pts
- NY: Elo 38.6%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- NY -175
- CHI +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NY 119.5 – 114.0 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NY | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1562 | 1552 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −28 | +26 | NY: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +80 Elo | CHI 61.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 53.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 51.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NY | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 30110.5 | Points scored | 119.811th of 30 |
| 5th of 30110.5 | Points allowed | 111.36th of 30 |
| 15th of 300.0 | Margin | +8.56th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30110.0 | Offense rating | 115.39th of 30 |
| 10th of 30110.0 | Defense rating | 107.14th of 30 |
| 24th of 30100.3 | Pace | 103.514th of 30 |
| 22nd of 290–2 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 30 |
| 1st of 301572 | Opponent Elo | 148522nd of 30 |
| 7th of 301562 | Elo rating | 155210th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Knicks
−28 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+26 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  NY |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 50–50 | 44–37 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 38–35 | 12–10 |
| Underdog | 12–15 | 32–27 |
| Overs–unders | 51–49 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NY 4–3 CHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.