Sacramento Kings at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Zach LaVinePoints30
- Dennis SchroderAssists7
- Domantas SabonisRebounds11
Bulls- Matas BuzelisPoints27
- Josh GiddeyAssists12
- Nikola VucevicRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game113–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter113–126
- Q48.2Nikola Vucevic defensive rebound113–126
- Q412.0Keon Ellis misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot113–126
- Q421.0shot clock turnover113–126
- Q443.0Kevin Huerter defensive rebound113–126
- Q448.1Devin Carter misses 25-foot three point jumper113–126
- Q454.7Nikola Vucevic makes free throw 2 of 2113–126
- Q454.7Nikola Vucevic makes free throw 1 of 2113–125
- Q454.7Drew Eubanks shooting foul113–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q24:34Zach LaVine makes 25-foot three pointer (Dennis Schroder assists)SAC 56 – 46 CHI · SAC 60% → 67% +8SAC 60% → 67%+8 pts
- Q254.8Tre Jones makes 22-foot three point shot (Josh Giddey assists)SAC 64 – 60 CHI · CHI 38% → 47% +8CHI 38% → 47%+8 pts
- Q311:33Matas Buzelis makes 22-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)SAC 66 – 65 CHI · CHI 46% → 55% +9CHI 46% → 55%+9 pts
- Q310:04Matas Buzelis makes 22-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)SAC 66 – 72 CHI · CHI 67% → 74% +8CHI 67% → 74%+8 pts
- Q34:56Patrick Williams makes 25-foot three pointerSAC 79 – 88 CHI · CHI 76% → 83% +7CHI 76% → 83%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -4.5
- ML SAC +150 / CHI -175
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 65%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -6.5
- CHI 73%
- Ratings vs. market
- +12.0 pts
- CHI: Elo 73.4%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- CHI -159
- SAC +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 117.0 – 121.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 238.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1481 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | SAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −16 | +19 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +176 Elo | CHI 73.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 64.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 65.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30110.5 | Points scored | 117.716th of 30 |
| 8th of 30114.5 | Points allowed | 110.75th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−4.0 | Margin | +7.07th of 30 |
| 27th of 30106.1 | Offense rating | 111.915th of 30 |
| 8th of 30109.9 | Defense rating | 105.33rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30104.2 | Pace | 104.710th of 30 |
| 20th of 290–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
| 10th of 301524 | Opponent Elo | 147625th of 30 |
| 19th of 301481 | Elo rating | 154612th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−16 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  SAC |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 36–46 | 44–37 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 23–30 | 12–10 |
| Underdog | 13–16 | 32–27 |
| Overs–unders | 43–39 | 42–40 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 2–2 CHI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.