Chicago Bulls at New York Knicks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NY; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Josh GiddeyPoints23
- Josh GiddeyAssists12
- Nikola VucevicRebounds14
Knicks- Jalen BrunsonPoints31
- Mikal BridgesAssists9
- Karl-Anthony TownsRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–128
- Q416.9Dalen Terry makes 24-foot three point jumper (Patrick Williams assists)116–128
- Q422.8Jalen Smith offensive rebound113–128
- Q424.7Dalen Terry misses driving layup113–128
- Q431.2Pacome Dadiet enters the game for Josh Hart113–128
- Q431.2Tyler Kolek enters the game for OG Anunoby113–128
- Q431.2Mohamed Diawara enters the game for Mikal Bridges113–128
- Q431.2Mikal Bridges traveling113–128
- Q454.5Josh Hart defensive rebound113–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:42Matas Buzelis makes 26-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 46 – 44 NY · CHI 30% → 37% +7CHI 30% → 37%+7 pts
- Q26:56Jordan Clarkson makes 25-foot three point shot (Josh Hart assists)CHI 46 – 49 NY · NY 68% → 74% +7NY 68% → 74%+7 pts
- Q26:44Nikola Vucevic makes 26-foot three point jumper (Tre Jones assists)CHI 49 – 49 NY · CHI 26% → 32% +7CHI 26% → 32%+7 pts
- Q26:20Miles McBride makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jordan Clarkson assists)CHI 49 – 52 NY · NY 68% → 74% +7NY 68% → 74%+7 pts
- Q310:50Nikola Vucevic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 65 – 70 NY · CHI 16% → 22% +6CHI 16% → 22%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Knicks 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- NY -8.5
- ML CHI +240 / NY -290
- Pre-line forecast
- NY 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -1.5
- NY 45%
- Ratings vs. market
- −26.9 pts
- NY: Elo 44.7%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- NY -253
- CHI +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 113.5 – 122.0 NY
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | NY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1560 | 1554 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +43 | −24 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · NY: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | −12 | CHI crossed 1 time zone and NY crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CHI +37 Elo | CHI 55.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NY 64.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NY 62.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NY 71.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | NY |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30122.8 | Points scored | 113.424th of 30 |
| 8th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 115.411th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+8.8 | Margin | −2.020th of 30 |
| 5th of 30118.9 | Offense rating | 112.817th of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.4 | Defense rating | 114.819th of 30 |
| 16th of 30103.0 | Pace | 100.424th of 30 |
| 1st of 291–0 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
| 13th of 301502 | Opponent Elo | 15662nd of 30 |
| 8th of 301560 | Elo rating | 155410th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+43 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Knicks
−24 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  NY |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–0 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–0 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 4–4 NY in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Oct 31NY 125 @ CHI 135Picked NY 64%Miss
- Feb 20CHI 111 @ NY 113Picked NY 78%Hit
- Jan 4NY 126 @ CHI 139Picked NY 66%Miss
- Nov 13CHI 124 @ NY 123Picked NY 75%Miss
- Apr 14CHI 119 @ NY 120Picked NY 68%Hit
- Apr 9NY 128 @ CHI 117Picked NY 54%Hit
- Apr 5NY 100 @ CHI 108Picked CHI 50%Hit
- Jan 3CHI 100 @ NY 116Picked NY 63%Hit