Philadelphia 76ers at Cleveland Cavaliers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CLE; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints27
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists9
- Andre DrummondRebounds13
Cavaliers- Donovan MitchellPoints46
- Donovan MitchellAssists8
- Jarrett AllenRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game121–132
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter121–132
- Q45.2shot clock turnover121–132
- Q430.2Hunter Sallis bad pass (Jaylon Tyson steals)121–132
- Q438.5Jaylon Tyson enters the game for Donovan Mitchell121–132
- Q438.5Thomas Bryant out of bounds bad pass turnover121–132
- Q451.7Craig Porter Jr. defensive rebound121–132
- Q456.5VJ Edgecombe misses 26-foot three point step back jumpshot121–132
- Q41:06Donovan Mitchell makes free throw 2 of 2121–132
- Q41:06Jabari Walker enters the game for Quentin Grimes121–131
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q22:42Tyrese Maxey makes 27-foot running pullup jump shot (Andre Drummond assists)PHI 58 – 63 CLE · PHI 12% → 16% +5PHI 12% → 16%+5 pts
- Q255.5Tyrese Maxey makes 27-foot three point jumper (Trendon Watford assists)PHI 65 – 68 CLE · PHI 15% → 20% +6PHI 15% → 20%+6 pts
- Q310:00Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 72 – 72 CLE · PHI 21% → 28% +7PHI 21% → 28%+7 pts
- Q39:19Evan Mobley makes 1-foot dunk (Jaylon Tyson assists)PHI 72 – 76 CLE · CLE 77% → 81% +5CLE 77% → 81%+5 pts
- Q35:43Andre Drummond makes 23-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Maxey assists)PHI 77 – 85 CLE · PHI 7% → 11% +4PHI 7% → 11%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cavaliers 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- CLE -12.5
- ML PHI +380 / CLE -550
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 85%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE -8.5
- CLE 79%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- CLE: Elo 79.2%, market 80.2%
- Fair odds
- CLE -406
- PHI +406 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 111.5 – 124.0 CLE
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1432 | 1587 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +17 | +6 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · CLE: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | PHI crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | CLE +232 Elo | CLE 79.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 85.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 84.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 80.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30123.6 | Points scored | 114.123rd of 30 |
| 17th of 30117.4 | Points allowed | 113.98th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+6.1 | Margin | +0.317th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30117.5 | Offense rating | 109.826th of 30 |
| 12th of 30111.6 | Defense rating | 109.55th of 30 |
| 10th of 30103.6 | Pace | 103.98th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303–1 | Road vs home | 2–110th of 30 |
| 27th of 301459 | Opponent Elo | 150315th of 30 |
| 24th of 301432 | Elo rating | 15876th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Cavaliers
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–1 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–1 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 2–5 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | — |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–4 CLE in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.