Philadelphia 76ers at Chicago Bulls, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors CHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints39
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists5
- VJ EdgecombeRebounds11
Bulls- Josh GiddeyPoints29
- Josh GiddeyAssists12
- Josh GiddeyRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–113
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–113
- Q41.976ers offensive team rebound111–113
- Q41.9Quentin Grimes misses 28-foot three point jumper111–113
- Q43.2Isaac Okoro enters the game for Kevin Huerter111–113
- Q43.276ers Full timeout111–113
- Q43.2Nikola Vucevic makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)111–113
- Q414.0Kevin Huerter enters the game for Isaac Okoro111–110
- Q414.0Bulls Full timeout111–110
- Q414.0Josh Giddey defensive rebound111–110
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:08Isaac Okoro makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)PHI 105 – 98 CHI · CHI 11% → 20% +9CHI 11% → 20%+9 pts
- Q44:39Nikola Vucevic makes tip shotPHI 109 – 104 CHI · CHI 13% → 21% +8CHI 13% → 21%+8 pts
- Q42:39Josh Giddey makes two point shot (Isaac Okoro assists)PHI 111 – 108 CHI · CHI 14% → 26% +12CHI 14% → 26%+12 pts
- Q41:19Josh Giddey makes 1-foot driving floating jump shotPHI 111 – 110 CHI · CHI 18% → 38% +21CHI 18% → 38%+21 pts
- Q43.2Nikola Vucevic makes 23-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)PHI 111 – 113 CHI · CHI 6% → >99% +94CHI 6% → >99%+94 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bulls 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- CHI -2.5
- ML PHI +110 / CHI -130
- Pre-line forecast
- CHI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHI -4
- CHI 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- +10.6 pts
- CHI: Elo 64.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- CHI -119
- PHI +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 119.0 – 121.5 CHI
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | CHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1435 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +82 | +42 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHI +107 Elo | CHI 64.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHI 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHI 54.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHI 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | CHI |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30125.7 | Points scored | 121.76th of 30 |
| 20th of 30118.2 | Points allowed | 116.314th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+7.5 | Margin | +5.37th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30119.7 | Offense rating | 118.34th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.5 | Defense rating | 113.116th of 30 |
| 15th of 30103.2 | Pace | 102.717th of 30 |
| 1st of 303–0 | Road vs home | 4–01st of 30 |
| 28th of 301448 | Opponent Elo | 151710th of 30 |
| 24th of 301435 | Elo rating | 154610th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+82 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bulls
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  CHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–1 | 5–1 |
| Last 10 | 5–1 | 5–1 |
| Favorite | 2–1 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 5–1 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–1 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 3–4 CHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.