Philadelphia 76ers at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
76ers- Kelly Oubre Jr.Points29
- Quentin GrimesAssists13
- Trendon WatfordRebounds9
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints29
- Nic ClaxtonAssists5
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game129–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter129–105
- Q414.7Hunter Sallis makes 8-foot driving floating jump shot129–105
- Q423.9Jabari Walker defensive rebound127–105
- Q427.4Michael Porter Jr. misses running pullup jump shot127–105
- Q430.0Michael Porter Jr. defensive rebound127–105
- Q435.2Johni Broome misses 23-foot three point jumper127–105
- Q443.6Michael Porter Jr. bad pass (Kyle Lowry steals)127–105
- Q448.9Michael Porter Jr. defensive rebound127–105
- Q451.1Justin Edwards misses 25-foot three point jumper127–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q12:56Egor Demin makes 28-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)PHI 25 – 25 BKN · BKN 31% → 38% +6BKN 31% → 38%+6 pts
- Q12:33Kelly Oubre Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Quentin Grimes assists)PHI 29 – 25 BKN · PHI 64% → 71% +6PHI 64% → 71%+6 pts
- Q12:17Ziaire Williams makes 26-foot three point jumper (Drake Powell assists)PHI 29 – 28 BKN · BKN 29% → 36% +6BKN 29% → 36%+6 pts
- Q126.1Quentin Grimes makes 23-foot three point jumper (VJ Edgecombe assists)PHI 39 – 34 BKN · PHI 66% → 73% +6PHI 66% → 73%+6 pts
- Q211:20Tyrese Maxey makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trendon Watford assists)PHI 43 – 37 BKN · PHI 69% → 75% +6PHI 69% → 75%+6 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -4.5
- ML PHI -195 / BKN +165
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 61%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -0.5
- PHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.3 pts
- PHI: Elo 52.4%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- PHI -175
- BKN +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 118.5 – 114.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1418 | 1355 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | +18 | PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +17 Elo | PHI 52.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 61.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 60.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| PHI | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30125.0 | Points scored | 113.823rd of 30 |
| 22nd of 30120.8 | Points allowed | 127.829th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.2 | Margin | −14.028th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30119.5 | Offense rating | 113.117th of 30 |
| 24th of 30115.4 | Defense rating | 127.030th of 30 |
| 17th of 30102.4 | Pace | 100.922nd of 30 |
| 1st of 292–0 | Road vs home | 0–226th of 30 |
| 25th of 301471 | Opponent Elo | 149219th of 30 |
| 25th of 301418 | Elo rating | 135528th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
76ers
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–1 | 2–3 |
| Last 10 | 4–1 | 2–3 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | — |
| Underdog | 3–0 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders | 4–1 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–1 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 4–4 BKN in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 7 of 8.
- Feb 22BKN 105 @ PHI 103Picked PHI 82%Miss
- Feb 12PHI 96 @ BKN 100Picked BKN 53%Hit
- Jan 4PHI 123 @ BKN 94Picked PHI 77%Hit
- Nov 22BKN 98 @ PHI 113Picked PHI 57%Hit
- Apr 14BKN 86 @ PHI 107Picked PHI 65%Hit
- Mar 5PHI 107 @ BKN 112Picked BKN 52%Hit
- Feb 3BKN 136 @ PHI 121Picked BKN 54%Hit
- Nov 19PHI 121 @ BKN 99Picked PHI 57%Hit