Dallas Mavericks at Washington Wizards, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors WSH; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Naji MarshallPoints30
- Brandon WilliamsAssists6
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds9
Wizards- CJ McCollumPoints25
- Alex SarrAssists5
- Tre JohnsonRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–105
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–105
- Q43.1Naji Marshall defensive rebound111–105
- Q44.8Tre Johnson misses 22-foot three point pullup jump shot111–105
- Q411.2Tre Johnson enters the game for Justin Champagnie111–105
- Q411.2CJ McCollum enters the game for Marvin Bagley III111–105
- Q411.2Wizards Full timeout111–105
- Q411.2P.J. Washington makes free throw 2 of 2111–105
- Q411.2Justin Champagnie enters the game for Tre Johnson110–105
- Q411.2Marvin Bagley III enters the game for CJ McCollum110–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:40Brandon Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)DAL 96 – 94 WSH · DAL 49% → 65% +16DAL 49% → 65%+16 pts
- Q45:40Bub Carrington makes 26-foot three pointerDAL 98 – 97 WSH · WSH 24% → 40% +16WSH 24% → 40%+16 pts
- Q45:13Tre Johnson makes 14-foot running pullup jump shotDAL 98 – 99 WSH · WSH 40% → 52% +12WSH 40% → 52%+12 pts
- Q45:02Brandon Williams makes driving layupDAL 100 – 99 WSH · DAL 48% → 60% +13DAL 48% → 60%+13 pts
- Q44:10Naji Marshall makes two point shot (Cooper Flagg assists)DAL 104 – 101 WSH · DAL 61% → 73% +13DAL 61% → 73%+13 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -4.5
- ML DAL -185 / WSH +155
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -1
- DAL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- DAL: Elo 53.8%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- DAL -166
- WSH +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 119.0 – 114.5 WSH
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | WSH | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1416 | 1299 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | −40 | WSH and DAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −46 | −4 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · WSH: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | DAL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DAL +27 Elo | DAL 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 59.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 59.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | WSH |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30106.0 | Points scored | 112.224th of 30 |
| 8th of 30114.2 | Points allowed | 130.330th of 30 |
| 27th of 30−8.2 | Margin | −18.130th of 30 |
| 30th of 30101.8 | Offense rating | 105.128th of 30 |
| 6th of 30109.7 | Defense rating | 122.129th of 30 |
| 7th of 30104.1 | Pace | 105.53rd of 30 |
| 26th of 300–2 | Road vs home | 0–429th of 30 |
| 21st of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 15216th of 30 |
| 25th of 301416 | Elo rating | 129930th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−46 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Wizards
−4 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  WSH |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–6 | 1–8 |
| Last 10 | 3–6 | 1–8 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 0–1 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 1–7 |
| Overs–unders | 2–7 | 6–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–7 | 6–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 4–1 WSH in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.