New Orleans Pelicans at Dallas Mavericks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Saddiq BeyPoints22
- Trey Murphy IIIAssists5
- Saddiq BeyRebounds9
Mavericks- Cooper FlaggPoints20
- Naji MarshallAssists5
- P.J. WashingtonRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–99
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–99
- Q42.2Trey Murphy III defensive rebound101–99
- Q43.9Cooper Flagg misses driving floating jump shot101–99
- Q49.8Mavericks Full timeout101–99
- Q49.8Cooper Flagg defensive rebound101–99
- Q411.0Derik Queen misses free throw 2 of 2101–99
- Q411.0Derik Queen makes free throw 1 of 2101–99
- Q411.0Daniel Gafford shooting foul100–99
- Q431.5Daniel Gafford makes 2-foot two point shot100–99
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41:06Saddiq Bey makes driving layup (Trey Murphy III assists)NO 98 – 95 DAL · NO 60% → 83% +23NO 60% → 83%+23 pts
- Q459.4Cooper Flagg makes free throw 2 of 2NO 98 – 97 DAL · DAL 26% → 39% +13DAL 26% → 39%+13 pts
- Q446.1Jose Alvarado makes free throw 1 of 2NO 99 – 97 DAL · NO 63% → 77% +14NO 63% → 77%+14 pts
- Q431.5Daniel Gafford makes 2-foot two point shotNO 100 – 99 DAL · DAL 8% → 33% +26DAL 8% → 33%+26 pts
- Q411.0Derik Queen makes free throw 1 of 2NO 101 – 99 DAL · NO 79% → 95% +16NO 79% → 95%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mavericks 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- DAL -8.5
- ML NO +250 / DAL -300
- Pre-line forecast
- DAL 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DAL -4.5
- DAL 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.6 pts
- DAL: Elo 66.8%, market 72.4%
- Fair odds
- DAL -263
- NO +263 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 108.5 – 117.0 DAL
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | DAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1364 | 1431 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | NO on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −27 | −49 | NO: Weaker than its recent lineups · DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DAL +121 Elo | DAL 66.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DAL 68.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DAL 68.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DAL 72.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | DAL |
|---|---|---|
| 29th of 30108.9 | Points scored | 107.330th of 30 |
| 28th of 30123.9 | Points allowed | 115.611th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−15.0 | Margin | −8.327th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.8 | Offense rating | 102.330th of 30 |
| 29th of 30122.6 | Defense rating | 110.28th of 30 |
| 28th of 3099.4 | Pace | 104.84th of 30 |
| 25th of 300–4 | Road vs home | 2–321st of 30 |
| 3rd of 301533 | Opponent Elo | 151113th of 30 |
| 27th of 301364 | Elo rating | 143124th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Mavericks
−49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  DAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–5 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 0–3 |
| Underdog | 1–5 | 3–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 3–5 DAL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
- Feb 21NO 103 @ DAL 111Picked DAL 68%Hit
- Jan 29DAL 137 @ NO 136Picked NO 50%Miss
- Jan 15DAL 116 @ NO 119Picked NO 51%Hit
- Nov 19NO 91 @ DAL 132Picked DAL 86%Hit
- Jan 15NO 120 @ DAL 125Picked NO 62%Miss
- Jan 13NO 118 @ DAL 108Picked DAL 59%Miss
- Nov 14DAL 110 @ NO 131Picked DAL 65%Miss
- Nov 12DAL 136 @ NO 124Picked DAL 61%Hit