New Orleans Pelicans at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Jordan PoolePoints30
- Jeremiah FearsAssists8
- Yves MissiRebounds9
Clippers- Kawhi LeonardPoints34
- James HardenAssists14
- Ivica ZubacRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game124–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter124–126
- Q40.0(00:00) [Pelicans] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)124–126
- Q40.4Kawhi Leonard makes 20-foot pullup jump shot (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)124–126
- Q49.6Zion Williamson makes free throw 2 of 2124–124
- Q49.6Saddiq Bey enters the game for Jordan Poole123–124
- Q49.6Zion Williamson makes free throw 1 of 2123–124
- Q49.6Ivica Zubac shooting foul122–124
- Q413.5Jordan Poole enters the game for Saddiq Bey122–124
- Q413.5Ivica Zubac enters the game for John Collins122–124
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:17Trey Murphy III makes 27-foot three point jumper (Yves Missi assists)NO 105 – 107 LAC · NO 15% → 27% +12NO 15% → 27%+12 pts
- Q45:09Derrick Jones Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Kawhi Leonard assists)NO 107 – 110 LAC · LAC 62% → 78% +16LAC 62% → 78%+16 pts
- Q49.6Zion Williamson makes free throw 1 of 2NO 123 – 124 LAC · NO 3% → 17% +14NO 3% → 17%+14 pts
- Q49.6Zion Williamson makes free throw 2 of 2NO 124 – 124 LAC · NO 17% → 48% +31NO 17% → 48%+31 pts
- Q40.4Kawhi Leonard makes 20-foot pullup jump shot (Derrick Jones Jr. assists)NO 124 – 126 LAC · LAC 50% → 100% +50LAC 50% → 100%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -10.5
- ML NO +425 / LAC -650
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 81%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -7.5
- LAC 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.3 pts
- LAC: Elo 76.6%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- LAC -455
- NO +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 106.5 – 117.0 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 223.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1363 | 1537 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +8 | +5 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +206 Elo | LAC 76.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 81.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 81.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 82.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30104.0 | Points scored | 107.529th of 30 |
| 25th of 30123.0 | Points allowed | 109.03rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−19.0 | Margin | −1.517th of 30 |
| 30th of 30101.1 | Offense rating | 111.321st of 30 |
| 29th of 30119.6 | Defense rating | 112.913th of 30 |
| 25th of 30100.2 | Pace | 96.430th of 30 |
| 22nd of 290–2 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
| 3rd of 301557 | Opponent Elo | 148323rd of 30 |
| 27th of 301363 | Elo rating | 153713th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+8 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  NO |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–48 | 51–38 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–9 | 30–22 |
| Underdog | 25–39 | 21–16 |
| Overs–unders | 45–37 | 43–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 4–3 LAC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.