LA Clippers at Golden State Warriors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors GS; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Clippers- James HardenPoints20
- Yanic Konan NiederhauserAssists2
- Ivica ZubacRebounds12
Warriors- Jimmy Butler IIIPoints21
- Stephen CurryAssists8
- Quinten PostRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game79–98
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter79–98
- Q410.1Brandin Podziemski defensive rebound79–98
- Q412.4Bogdan Bogdanovic misses 22-foot step back jumpshot79–98
- Q426.9Gui Santos offensive goaltending turnover79–98
- Q426.9Warriors offensive team rebound79–98
- Q427.8Pat Spencer misses 7-foot two point shot79–98
- Q448.0Cam Christie makes free throw 2 of 279–98
- Q448.0Clippers offensive team rebound78–98
- Q448.0Cam Christie misses free throw 1 of 278–98
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q241.1James Harden makes 30-foot running pullup jump shotLAC 49 – 46 GS · LAC 51% → 59% +9LAC 51% → 59%+9 pts
- Q311:23Quinten Post makes 27-foot three point jumper (Stephen Curry assists)LAC 51 – 49 GS · GS 35% → 43% +9GS 35% → 43%+9 pts
- Q36:07Brandin Podziemski makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotLAC 57 – 63 GS · GS 59% → 69% +9GS 59% → 69%+9 pts
- Q33:51Jimmy Butler III makes 28-foot three pointerLAC 61 – 66 GS · GS 57% → 67% +10GS 57% → 67%+10 pts
- Q32:07Jimmy Butler III makes 23-foot three point jumper (Brandin Podziemski assists)LAC 61 – 71 GS · GS 74% → 83% +8GS 74% → 83%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -1.5
- ML LAC -115 / GS -105
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -1
- LAC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.9 pts
- LAC: Elo 54.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- LAC -104
- GS +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAC 113.0 – 111.5 GS
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAC | GS | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | GS on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +27 | +1 | LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups · GS: Usual rotation (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +34 Elo | LAC 54.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 57.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAC | Stat | GS |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 30117.0 | Points scored | 126.55th of 30 |
| 6th of 30112.7 | Points allowed | 124.323rd of 30 |
| 12th of 30+4.3 | Margin | +2.315th of 30 |
| 9th of 30118.5 | Offense rating | 119.18th of 30 |
| 16th of 30114.1 | Defense rating | 117.025th of 30 |
| 29th of 3098.6 | Pace | 103.415th of 30 |
| 19th of 290–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
| 26th of 301459 | Opponent Elo | 15376th of 30 |
| 8th of 301554 | Elo rating | 155010th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Clippers
+27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Warriors
+1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  LAC |  GS |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 51–38 | 47–47 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 30–22 | 29–31 |
| Underdog | 21–16 | 18–16 |
| Overs–unders | 43–46 | 47–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAC 7–1 GS in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 8.
- Apr 13LAC 124 @ GS 119Picked GS 60%Miss
- Dec 27GS 92 @ LAC 102Picked LAC 65%Hit
- Nov 18GS 99 @ LAC 102Picked GS 65%Miss
- Oct 27LAC 112 @ GS 104Picked GS 76%Miss
- Feb 14LAC 130 @ GS 125Picked GS 55%Miss
- Dec 14GS 113 @ LAC 121Picked LAC 63%Hit
- Dec 2GS 112 @ LAC 113Picked LAC 57%Hit
- Nov 30LAC 114 @ GS 120Picked GS 56%Hit