New Orleans Pelicans at Denver Nuggets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DEN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Jeremiah FearsPoints21
- Jeremiah FearsAssists6
- Derik QueenRebounds8
Nuggets- Nikola JokicPoints21
- Nikola JokicAssists10
- Nikola JokicRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game88–122
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter88–122
- Q420.3Nuggets defensive team rebound88–122
- Q420.3Jordan Hawkins misses 16-foot jumper88–122
- Q432.7Zeke Nnaji makes layup88–122
- Q435.6Zeke Nnaji offensive rebound88–120
- Q435.6Spencer Jones misses 23-foot three point jumper88–120
- Q446.5Micah Peavy makes 1-foot dunk88–120
- Q448.9Spencer Jones bad pass (Micah Peavy steals)86–120
- Q456.3Karlo Matkovic makes 2-foot layup (Bryce McGowens assists)86–120
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:14Nikola Jokic makes 25-foot three point jumper (Christian Braun assists)NO 1 – 5 DEN · DEN 83% → 87% +4DEN 83% → 87%+4 pts
- Q15:04Jordan Poole makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotNO 14 – 16 DEN · NO 13% → 17% +4NO 13% → 17%+4 pts
- Q14:27Saddiq Bey makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jeremiah Fears assists)NO 17 – 18 DEN · NO 14% → 19% +4NO 14% → 19%+4 pts
- Q12:46Tim Hardaway Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Christian Braun assists)NO 19 – 25 DEN · DEN 84% → 88% +4DEN 84% → 88%+4 pts
- Q311:05Cameron Johnson makes 27-foot three point shot (Jamal Murray assists)NO 47 – 58 DEN · DEN 89% → 93% +4DEN 89% → 93%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 82%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -11.5
- ML NO +425 / DEN -650
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 82%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DEN -7
- DEN 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- DEN: Elo 74.8%, market 82.0%
- Fair odds
- DEN -455
- NO +455 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 113.0 – 124.5 DEN
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | DEN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1374 | 1587 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +15 | −45 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DEN +189 Elo | DEN 74.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 82.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 82.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 82.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | DEN |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30109.3 | Points scored | 130.32nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 30123.3 | Points allowed | 120.720th of 30 |
| 29th of 30−14.0 | Margin | +9.74th of 30 |
| 28th of 30104.5 | Offense rating | 123.52nd of 30 |
| 27th of 30117.9 | Defense rating | 114.417th of 30 |
| 21st of 30101.1 | Pace | 102.219th of 30 |
| 20th of 290–1 | Road vs home | 1–01st of 30 |
| 6th of 301542 | Opponent Elo | 15378th of 30 |
| 27th of 301374 | Elo rating | 15874th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nuggets
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  NO |  DEN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 34–48 | 46–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 9–9 | 28–36 |
| Underdog | 25–39 | 18–14 |
| Overs–unders | 45–37 | 55–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 2–5 DEN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.