New Orleans Pelicans at Oklahoma City Thunder, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors OKC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pelicans- Zion WilliamsonPoints20
- Zion WilliamsonAssists6
- Zion WilliamsonRebounds9
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints30
- Isaiah HartensteinAssists8
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds14
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game106–137
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter106–137
- Q411.1shot clock turnover106–137
- Q436.5Isaiah Joe defensive goaltending violation106–137
- Q436.5Karlo Matkovic makes 1-foot dunk (Bryce McGowens assists)106–137
- Q440.0Derik Queen defensive rebound104–137
- Q443.8Isaiah Joe misses 28-foot three point pullup jump shot104–137
- Q41:01Bryce McGowens makes free throw 2 of 2104–137
- Q41:01Bryce McGowens makes free throw 1 of 2103–137
- Q41:01Isaiah Joe shooting foul102–137
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q111:31Jeremiah Fears makes 23-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)NO 3 – 0 OKC · NO 16% → 20% +4NO 16% → 20%+4 pts
- Q111:15Aaron Wiggins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)NO 3 – 3 OKC · OKC 80% → 84% +4OKC 80% → 84%+4 pts
- Q110:31Herbert Jones makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trey Murphy III assists)NO 7 – 5 OKC · NO 15% → 19% +4NO 15% → 19%+4 pts
- Q110:05Cason Wallace makes 26-foot three pointer (Isaiah Hartenstein assists)NO 7 – 8 OKC · OKC 81% → 85% +4OKC 81% → 85%+4 pts
- Q19:47Jeremiah Fears makes 25-foot three point jumper (Zion Williamson assists)NO 10 – 8 OKC · NO 15% → 19% +4NO 15% → 19%+4 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 84%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -13.5
- ML NO +500 / OKC -800
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 89%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -11
- OKC 86%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.7 pts
- OKC: Elo 85.9%, market 84.2%
- Fair odds
- OKC -533
- NO +533 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NO 107.5 – 121.0 OKC
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NO | OKC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1361 | 1671 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +17 | −38 | NO: Stronger than its recent lineups · OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | NO crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | OKC +314 Elo | OKC 85.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 89.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 88.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 84.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| NO | Stat | OKC |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30108.0 | Points scored | 119.711th of 30 |
| 27th of 30123.6 | Points allowed | 110.33rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−15.6 | Margin | +9.35th of 30 |
| 27th of 30105.7 | Offense rating | 112.318th of 30 |
| 29th of 30121.0 | Defense rating | 103.52nd of 30 |
| 25th of 30100.0 | Pace | 99.527th of 30 |
| 23rd of 290–3 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301550 | Opponent Elo | 147225th of 30 |
| 27th of 301361 | Elo rating | 16711st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pelicans
+17 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Thunder
−38 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NO |  OKC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–4 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 1–4 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | — | 2–4 |
| Underdog | 1–4 | — |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 3–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 3–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NO 1–10 OKC in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 11.
- Apr 13OKC 115 @ NO 100Picked OKC 84%Hit
- Feb 10NO 101 @ OKC 137Picked OKC 90%Hit
- Dec 7OKC 119 @ NO 109Picked OKC 74%Hit
- Nov 13NO 88 @ OKC 106Picked OKC 88%Hit
- Apr 29OKC 97 @ NO 89PlayoffsPicked OKC 67%Hit
- Apr 27OKC 106 @ NO 85PlayoffsPicked OKC 62%Hit
- Apr 24NO 92 @ OKC 124PlayoffsPicked OKC 67%Hit
- Apr 21NO 92 @ OKC 94PlayoffsPicked OKC 65%Hit