Charlotte Hornets at New Orleans Pelicans, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors NO; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Hornets- Miles BridgesPoints22
- Collin SextonAssists5
- Kon KnueppelRebounds12
Pelicans- Trey Murphy IIIPoints21
- Derik QueenAssists7
- Derik QueenRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–116
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–116
- Q41.2Hornets offensive team rebound112–116
- Q41.2Kon Knueppel misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot112–116
- Q43.3Sion James defensive rebound112–116
- Q45.3Saddiq Bey misses free throw 2 of 2112–116
- Q45.3Saddiq Bey makes free throw 1 of 2112–116
- Q45.3Sion James personal foul112–115
- Q45.3Saddiq Bey defensive rebound112–115
- Q49.0Miles Bridges misses 25-foot three point step back jumpshot112–115
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:57Tre Mann makes 9-foot jumperCHA 110 – 105 NO · CHA 68% → 80% +12CHA 68% → 80%+12 pts
- Q42:50Jose Alvarado makes 26-foot three point shot (Derik Queen assists)CHA 112 – 108 NO · NO 7% → 21% +14NO 7% → 21%+14 pts
- Q42:13Derik Queen makes 2-foot layup (Jose Alvarado assists)CHA 112 – 110 NO · NO 18% → 33% +15NO 18% → 33%+15 pts
- Q416.1Jose Alvarado makes 26-foot three point step back jumpshotCHA 112 – 113 NO · NO 8% → 76% +68NO 8% → 76%+68 pts
- Q413.9Trey Murphy III makes free throw 1 of 2CHA 112 – 114 NO · NO 78% → 94% +16NO 78% → 94%+16 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pelicans 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- NO -3.5
- ML CHA +135 / NO -155
- Pre-line forecast
- NO 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHA -1.5
- NO 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.8 pts
- NO: Elo 44.0%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- NO -143
- CHA +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHA 113.0 – 116.5 NO
- Posted spread, posted total 229.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHA | NO | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1352 | 1356 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +50 | −32 | CHA: Stronger than its recent lineups · NO: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | CHA +42 Elo | CHA 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NO 50.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHA 50.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NO 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHA | Stat | NO |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 30121.6 | Points scored | 107.729th of 30 |
| 26th of 30121.0 | Points allowed | 125.828th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −18.230th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.8 | Offense rating | 106.127th of 30 |
| 26th of 30116.2 | Defense rating | 124.029th of 30 |
| 6th of 30104.2 | Pace | 99.726th of 30 |
| 17th of 301–2 | Road vs home | 0–227th of 30 |
| 29th of 301437 | Opponent Elo | 15641st of 30 |
| 28th of 301352 | Elo rating | 135627th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Hornets
+50 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pelicans
−32 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHA |  NO |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–3 | 1–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–3 | 1–5 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | — |
| Underdog | 3–3 | 1–5 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHA 1–3 NO in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.