Dallas Mavericks at Memphis Grizzlies, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MEM; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mavericks- Max ChristiePoints18
- D'Angelo RussellAssists5
- Moussa CisseRebounds8
Grizzlies- Cedric CowardPoints21
- Ja MorantAssists13
- Cedric CowardRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game104–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter104–118
- Q40.7Brandon Williams lost ball turnover (GG Jackson steals)104–118
- Q44.4shot clock turnover104–118
- Q47.7Javon Small enters the game for Jaren Jackson Jr.104–118
- Q47.7GG Jackson enters the game for Jock Landale104–118
- Q47.7PJ Hall enters the game for Ja Morant104–118
- Q47.7Olivier-Maxence Prosper enters the game for Jaylen Wells104–118
- Q47.7Grizzlies offensive team rebound104–118
- Q47.7Jaden Hardy blocks Jock Landale 's 2-foot layup104–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q19:11Max Christie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Cooper Flagg assists)DAL 7 – 6 MEM · DAL 35% → 41% +6DAL 35% → 41%+6 pts
- Q18:58Jaren Jackson Jr. makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)DAL 7 – 9 MEM · MEM 59% → 65% +6MEM 59% → 65%+6 pts
- Q18:27Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)DAL 7 – 14 MEM · MEM 69% → 74% +5MEM 69% → 74%+5 pts
- Q16:42Santi Aldama makes 25-foot three point jumper (Ja Morant assists)DAL 11 – 21 MEM · MEM 75% → 80% +5MEM 75% → 80%+5 pts
- Q210:47Kentavious Caldwell-Pope makes 24-foot three point jumper (Cam Spencer assists)DAL 24 – 37 MEM · MEM 80% → 85% +5MEM 80% → 85%+5 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Grizzlies 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MEM -4.5
- ML DAL +150 / MEM -175
- Pre-line forecast
- MEM 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MEM -3.5
- MEM 64%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.6 pts
- MEM: Elo 64.0%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- MEM -159
- DAL +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DAL 114.0 – 118.5 MEM
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DAL | MEM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1424 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −44 | −41 | DAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · MEM: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MEM +100 Elo | MEM 64.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MEM 61.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MEM 61.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MEM 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DAL | Stat | MEM |
|---|---|---|
| 30th of 30106.3 | Points scored | 114.821st of 30 |
| 8th of 30113.8 | Points allowed | 120.828th of 30 |
| 26th of 30−7.5 | Margin | −6.025th of 30 |
| 30th of 30101.9 | Offense rating | 109.925th of 30 |
| 4th of 30109.1 | Defense rating | 115.623rd of 30 |
| 6th of 30104.2 | Pace | 104.54th of 30 |
| 26th of 300–1 | Road vs home | 2–423rd of 30 |
| 21st of 301494 | Opponent Elo | 151211th of 30 |
| 25th of 301424 | Elo rating | 148520th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Mavericks
−44 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Grizzlies
−41 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DAL |  MEM |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–5 | 2–7 |
| Last 10 | 3–5 | 2–7 |
| Favorite | 0–4 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 0–5 |
| Overs–unders | 2–6 | 4–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–6 | 4–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DAL 3–5 MEM in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 8.
- Apr 13DAL 97 @ MEM 132Picked DAL 55%Miss
- Mar 7MEM 122 @ DAL 111Picked MEM 78%Hit
- Jan 6DAL 104 @ MEM 119Picked MEM 62%Hit
- Dec 3MEM 116 @ DAL 121Picked DAL 63%Hit
- Jan 9MEM 120 @ DAL 103Picked DAL 74%Miss
- Dec 11DAL 120 @ MEM 113Picked DAL 60%Hit
- Dec 1MEM 108 @ DAL 94Picked DAL 64%Miss
- Oct 30DAL 125 @ MEM 110Picked DAL 51%Hit