Washington Wizards at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Wizards- CJ McCollumPoints42
- Kyshawn GeorgeAssists6
- Alex SarrRebounds15
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints46
- Cade CunninghamAssists11
- Jalen DurenRebounds14
Last plays
- OT0.0End of Game135–137
- OT0.0End of the 1st Overtime135–137
- OT2.3CJ McCollum defensive rebound135–137
- OT6.6Paul Reed misses free throw 2 of 2135–137
- OT6.6Pistons offensive team rebound135–137
- OT6.6Paul Reed misses free throw 1 of 2135–137
- OT6.6CJ McCollum personal foul135–137
- OT6.6Paul Reed defensive rebound135–137
- OT7.8CJ McCollum misses 24-foot three point jumper135–137
- OT16.5Tre Johnson enters the game for Marvin Bagley III135–137
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q41.3Daniss Jenkins makes 22-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)WSH 127 – 127 DET · DET <1% → 51% +51DET <1% → 51%+51 pts
- OT2:12Cam Whitmore makes two point shot (Tre Johnson assists)WSH 131 – 129 DET · WSH 43% → 62% +19WSH 43% → 62%+19 pts
- OT1:04Duncan Robinson makes 26-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)WSH 133 – 134 DET · DET 29% → 68% +40DET 29% → 68%+40 pts
- OT25.2Javonte Green makes 1-foot dunk (Jalen Duren assists)WSH 133 – 136 DET · DET 74% → 96% +22DET 74% → 96%+22 pts
- OT20.6Kyshawn George makes driving layupWSH 135 – 136 DET · WSH 3% → 24% +22WSH 3% → 24%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 81%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- DET -10.5
- ML WSH +400 / DET -600
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 79%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -9
- DET 80%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- DET: Elo 80.4%, market 81.1%
- Fair odds
- DET -429
- WSH +429 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 113.0 – 123.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1292 | 1539 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | DET on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +12 | +15 | WSH: Stronger than its recent lineups · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +246 Elo | DET 80.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 79.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 79.2% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 81.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| WSH | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 25th of 30111.5 | Points scored | 116.117th of 30 |
| 30th of 30128.4 | Points allowed | 110.53rd of 30 |
| 30th of 30−16.9 | Margin | +5.67th of 30 |
| 28th of 30104.7 | Offense rating | 112.918th of 30 |
| 29th of 30120.6 | Defense rating | 107.52nd of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.4 | Pace | 103.013th of 30 |
| 20th of 301–4 | Road vs home | 3–110th of 30 |
| 10th of 301513 | Opponent Elo | 148324th of 30 |
| 30th of 301292 | Elo rating | 153911th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Wizards
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+15 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–9 | 7–3 |
| Last 10 | 1–9 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 0–1 | 5–2 |
| Underdog | 1–8 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–4 DET in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 7.