Detroit Pistons at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints34
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Jalen DurenRebounds11
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points28
- Egor DeminAssists7
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–107
- Q41.4Jalen Wilson makes 24-foot three point jumper (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)125–107
- Q46.8Day'Ron Sharpe defensive rebound125–104
- Q49.2Paul Reed misses free throw 2 of 2125–104
- Q49.2Pistons offensive team rebound125–104
- Q49.2Paul Reed misses free throw 1 of 2125–104
- Q49.2Tyson Etienne shooting foul125–104
- Q49.2Paul Reed offensive rebound125–104
- Q49.6Daniss Jenkins misses dunk125–104
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q18:11Noah Clowney makes 23-foot running pullup jump shot (Egor Demin assists)DET 9 – 17 BKN · BKN 34% → 40% +6BKN 34% → 40%+6 pts
- Q16:16Terance Mann makes 23-foot three point jumper (Egor Demin assists)DET 15 – 22 BKN · BKN 33% → 39% +6BKN 33% → 39%+6 pts
- Q25:41Egor Demin makes 25-foot three point jumper (Nic Claxton assists)DET 43 – 43 BKN · BKN 22% → 29% +6BKN 22% → 29%+6 pts
- Q23:26Michael Porter Jr. makes 22-foot three point jumper (Noah Clowney assists)DET 49 – 51 BKN · BKN 27% → 34% +7BKN 27% → 34%+7 pts
- Q21:25Caris LeVert makes 26-foot three point shot (Duncan Robinson assists)DET 56 – 55 BKN · DET 65% → 72% +8DET 65% → 72%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DET -10.5
- ML DET -400 / BKN +300
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 80%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -6.5
- DET 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.6 pts
- DET: Elo 74.5%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- DET -320
- BKN +320 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 119.0 – 108.5 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1528 | 1347 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +31 | −10 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +187 Elo | DET 74.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 80.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 80.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 76.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30115.6 | Points scored | 111.926th of 30 |
| 4th of 30111.3 | Points allowed | 124.529th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.4 | Margin | −12.628th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30112.1 | Offense rating | 110.325th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30107.9 | Defense rating | 122.730th of 30 |
| 13th of 30103.4 | Pace | 101.621st of 30 |
| 4th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 0–429th of 30 |
| 14th of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 150316th of 30 |
| 13th of 301528 | Elo rating | 134728th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−10 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–2 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 6–2 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | — |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 3–5 |
| Overs–unders | 3–5 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–5 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 4–3 BKN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.