Minnesota Timberwolves at Brooklyn Nets, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors BKN; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Timberwolves- Donte DiVincenzoPoints25
- Julius RandleAssists10
- Rudy GobertRebounds12
Nets- Cam ThomasPoints25
- Nic ClaxtonAssists7
- Nic ClaxtonRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game125–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter125–109
- Q420.0Day'Ron Sharpe makes 1-foot dunk (Danny Wolf assists)125–109
- Q433.2Leonard Miller makes 4-foot two point shot125–107
- Q445.3Ben Saraf makes free throw 2 of 2123–107
- Q445.3Ben Saraf makes free throw 1 of 2123–106
- Q445.3Joan Beringer shooting foul123–105
- Q451.1Danny Wolf defensive rebound123–105
- Q454.1Day'Ron Sharpe blocks Terrence Shannon Jr. 's 1-foot driving layup123–105
- Q41:03Ben Saraf makes 25-foot three point jumper (Danny Wolf assists)123–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q26:44Donte DiVincenzo makes 26-foot three point jumper (Naz Reid assists)MIN 42 – 41 BKN · MIN 69% → 75% +7MIN 69% → 75%+7 pts
- Q25:51Mike Conley makes 23-foot three point jumper (Donte DiVincenzo assists)MIN 45 – 43 BKN · MIN 71% → 77% +6MIN 71% → 77%+6 pts
- Q33:52Noah Clowney makes 25-foot three point jumper (Egor Demin assists)MIN 83 – 80 BKN · BKN 16% → 24% +8BKN 16% → 24%+8 pts
- Q31:57Ziaire Williams makes 25-foot three point jumper (Egor Demin assists)MIN 87 – 87 BKN · BKN 24% → 34% +10BKN 24% → 34%+10 pts
- Q31:01Julius Randle makes driving layupMIN 91 – 88 BKN · MIN 69% → 76% +7MIN 69% → 76%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Timberwolves 78%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- MIN -9.5
- ML MIN -450 / BKN +340
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 83%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN -7.5
- MIN 77%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 76.8%, market 78.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -360
- BKN +360 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 117.5 – 108.0 BKN
- Posted spread, posted total 225.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | BKN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1591 | 1338 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | BKN on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −56 | −7 | MIN: Weaker than its recent lineups · BKN: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +208 Elo | MIN 76.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 83.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 82.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 78.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIN | Stat | BKN |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 30115.5 | Points scored | 112.326th of 30 |
| 14th of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 128.029th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−1.2 | Margin | −15.729th of 30 |
| 14th of 30113.8 | Offense rating | 110.524th of 30 |
| 21st of 30115.0 | Defense rating | 125.930th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30101.6 | Pace | 102.020th of 30 |
| 4th of 292–1 | Road vs home | 0–327th of 30 |
| 9th of 301525 | Opponent Elo | 148322nd of 30 |
| 4th of 301591 | Elo rating | 133829th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Timberwolves
−56 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Nets
−7 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  BKN |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–5 | 2–4 |
| Last 10 | 1–5 | 2–4 |
| Favorite | 1–4 | — |
| Underdog | 0–1 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 4–0 BKN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.