Utah Jazz at Detroit Pistons, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors DET; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Jazz- Svi MykhailiukPoints28
- Keyonte GeorgeAssists6
- Jusuf NurkicRebounds17
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints31
- Cade CunninghamAssists10
- Jalen DurenRebounds22
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game103–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter103–114
- Q40.1Jazz offensive team rebound103–114
- Q40.2Keyonte George misses heave jump shot103–114
- Q40.4Ausar Thompson out of bounds bad pass turnover103–114
- Q415.9Isaiah Stewart defensive rebound103–114
- Q418.6Lauri Markkanen misses 28-foot three point jumper103–114
- Q426.1Ausar Thompson makes free throw 2 of 2103–114
- Q426.1Javonte Green enters the game for Duncan Robinson103–113
- Q426.1Ronald Holland II enters the game for Cade Cunningham103–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:21Lauri Markkanen makes 27-foot three point jumper (Walter Clayton Jr. assists)UTAH 41 – 34 DET · UTAH 36% → 44% +7UTAH 36% → 44%+7 pts
- Q26:13Svi Mykhailiuk makes 25-foot three point jumper (Keyonte George assists)UTAH 46 – 34 DET · UTAH 50% → 58% +8UTAH 50% → 58%+8 pts
- Q26:00Duncan Robinson makes 23-foot three point jumper (Ronald Holland II assists)UTAH 46 – 37 DET · DET 42% → 50% +8DET 42% → 50%+8 pts
- Q22:41Keyonte George makes 23-foot three point jumper (Kevin Love assists)UTAH 53 – 45 DET · UTAH 42% → 50% +8UTAH 42% → 50%+8 pts
- Q49:52Ronald Holland II makes 27-foot three point jumper (Cade Cunningham assists)UTAH 75 – 81 DET · DET 75% → 85% +10DET 75% → 85%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 77%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- DET -9.5
- ML UTAH +320 / DET -425
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 78%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -7
- DET 75%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.9 pts
- DET: Elo 75.4%, market 77.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -340
- UTAH +340 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- UTAH 112.0 – 121.5 DET
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | UTAH | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1385 | 1524 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −1 | +30 | UTAH: Usual rotation · DET: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −12 | DET crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | DET +194 Elo | DET 75.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 78.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 77.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 77.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| UTAH | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 30115.6 | Points scored | 115.920th of 30 |
| 21st of 30118.6 | Points allowed | 112.45th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−3.0 | Margin | +3.48th of 30 |
| 20th of 30112.0 | Offense rating | 112.119th of 30 |
| 21st of 30114.9 | Defense rating | 108.83rd of 30 |
| 20th of 30101.5 | Pace | 103.611th of 30 |
| 19th of 301–3 | Road vs home | 2–110th of 30 |
| 24th of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 15296th of 30 |
| 26th of 301385 | Elo rating | 152414th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Jazz
−1 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pistons
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  UTAH |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–2 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 2–1 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
UTAH 3–1 DET in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.