Brooklyn Nets at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nets- Michael Porter Jr.Points32
- Nic ClaxtonAssists6
- Michael Porter Jr.Rebounds11
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints23
- Pascal SiakamAssists10
- Jeremiah Robinson-EarlRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–103
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–103
- Q40.5Pacers offensive team rebound112–103
- Q40.5Aaron Nesmith misses 25-foot three point jumper112–103
- Q41.1Aaron Nesmith offensive rebound112–103
- Q44.4Jay Huff misses 29-foot three point jumper112–103
- Q49.9Nic Claxton makes 1-foot dunk (Michael Porter Jr. assists)112–103
- Q415.6Michael Porter Jr. defensive rebound110–103
- Q418.6Jay Huff misses 28-foot three point jumper110–103
- Q422.1Michael Porter Jr. makes free throw 1 of 1110–103
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:18Taelon Peter makes 31-foot three point jumper (Jarace Walker assists)BKN 82 – 86 IND · IND 63% → 75% +12IND 63% → 75%+12 pts
- Q49:57Jalen Wilson makes 29-foot three point jumper (Terance Mann assists)BKN 85 – 86 IND · BKN 25% → 37% +12BKN 25% → 37%+12 pts
- Q49:11Tyrese Martin makes 28-foot three point jumper (Day'Ron Sharpe assists)BKN 90 – 86 IND · BKN 46% → 60% +14BKN 46% → 60%+14 pts
- Q46:09Jalen Wilson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Tyrese Martin assists)BKN 96 – 91 IND · BKN 55% → 71% +16BKN 55% → 71%+16 pts
- Q42:49Ben Sheppard makes 28-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)BKN 101 – 96 IND · IND 5% → 17% +11IND 5% → 17%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pacers 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- IND -6.5
- ML BKN +210 / IND -250
- Pre-line forecast
- IND 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- IND -5
- IND 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.6 pts
- IND: Elo 68.3%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- IND -221
- BKN +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BKN 113.0 – 119.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BKN | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1332 | 1547 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +6 | −112 | BKN: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | IND +133 Elo | IND 68.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | IND 67.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | IND 67.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | IND 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BKN | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 26th of 30111.9 | Points scored | 112.924th of 30 |
| 30th of 30127.6 | Points allowed | 120.626th of 30 |
| 30th of 30−15.7 | Margin | −7.726th of 30 |
| 25th of 30110.6 | Offense rating | 105.128th of 30 |
| 30th of 30126.2 | Defense rating | 112.314th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30101.2 | Pace | 104.16th of 30 |
| 24th of 300–3 | Road vs home | 1–327th of 30 |
| 16th of 301500 | Opponent Elo | 15403rd of 30 |
| 29th of 301332 | Elo rating | 154711th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nets
+6 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−112 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BKN |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–5 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | — | — |
| Underdog | 2–5 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 2–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 2–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BKN 2–5 IND in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.