Golden State Warriors at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints24
- Jimmy Butler IIIAssists7
- Draymond GreenRebounds10
Pacers- Aaron NesmithPoints31
- Quenton JacksonAssists10
- Jarace WalkerRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–114
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–114
- Q43.1Isaiah Jackson defensive rebound109–114
- Q43.1Stephen Curry misses 23-foot three point jumper109–114
- Q44.8Buddy Hield enters the game for Jonathan Kuminga109–114
- Q44.8Warriors Full timeout109–114
- Q45.2Quenton Jackson makes 6-foot two point shot109–114
- Q426.9Aaron Nesmith defensive rebound109–112
- Q429.9Jonathan Kuminga misses 24-foot three point jumper109–112
- Q435.3Brandin Podziemski enters the game for Gary Payton II109–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:45Quenton Jackson makes 27-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)GS 104 – 102 IND · IND 12% → 27% +15IND 12% → 27%+15 pts
- Q42:34Stephen Curry makes 5-foot two point shotGS 107 – 104 IND · GS 66% → 81% +15GS 66% → 81%+15 pts
- Q41:09Quenton Jackson makes 30-foot three point jumper (Jarace Walker assists)GS 107 – 109 IND · IND 32% → 71% +39IND 32% → 71%+39 pts
- Q456.5Jimmy Butler III makes 1-foot driving dunkGS 109 – 109 IND · GS 27% → 55% +28GS 27% → 55%+28 pts
- Q437.1Pascal Siakam makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jarace Walker assists)GS 109 – 112 IND · IND 46% → 90% +44IND 46% → 90%+44 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 80%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 80–85% have won 81.1% of 286 graded games.
- Market
- GS -10.5
- ML GS -550 / IND +380
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 74%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -4.5
- GS 68%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.5 pts
- GS: Elo 67.8%, market 80.2%
- Fair odds
- GS -406
- IND +406 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 120.5 – 110.0 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 230.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | IND on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +5 | −118 | GS: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | GS crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | GS +129 Elo | GS 67.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 74.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 74.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 80.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30119.0 | Points scored | 112.227th of 30 |
| 12th of 30116.0 | Points allowed | 123.626th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+3.0 | Margin | −11.428th of 30 |
| 11th of 30114.9 | Offense rating | 103.429th of 30 |
| 11th of 30112.0 | Defense rating | 113.912th of 30 |
| 21st of 30101.5 | Pace | 103.99th of 30 |
| 16th of 291–2 | Road vs home | 0–225th of 30 |
| 4th of 301544 | Opponent Elo | 15387th of 30 |
| 9th of 301555 | Elo rating | 154012th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+5 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−118 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  GS |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–2 | 3–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 3–2 |
| Favorite | 3–2 | — |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–1 | 2–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–1 | 2–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 1–3 IND in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.