Golden State Warriors at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Warriors- Stephen CurryPoints27
- Draymond GreenAssists6
- Jimmy Butler IIIRebounds10
Bucks- Ryan RollinsPoints32
- Ryan RollinsAssists8
- Kyle KuzmaRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–120
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–120
- Q414.1Myles Turner defensive rebound110–120
- Q417.2Jimmy Butler III misses 23-foot three point jumper110–120
- Q424.8Ryan Rollins makes 28-foot three point step back jumpshot110–120
- Q445.3Kyle Kuzma defensive rebound110–117
- Q448.8Stephen Curry misses 29-foot three point pullup jump shot110–117
- Q452.58 second turnover110–117
- Q457.2Myles Turner defensive rebound110–117
- Q41:00Jonathan Kuminga misses 8-foot two point shot110–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:11Buddy Hield makes 25-foot three pointerGS 91 – 92 MIL · GS 41% → 55% +14GS 41% → 55%+14 pts
- Q46:45Al Horford makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Kuminga assists)GS 96 – 98 MIL · GS 32% → 47% +16GS 32% → 47%+16 pts
- Q46:20AJ Green makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshot (Bobby Portis assists)GS 96 – 101 MIL · MIL 53% → 69% +16MIL 53% → 69%+16 pts
- Q44:03Stephen Curry makes 26-foot three point jumper (Al Horford assists)GS 104 – 106 MIL · GS 23% → 42% +19GS 23% → 42%+19 pts
- Q43:53Ryan Rollins makes 27-foot three point step back jumpshotGS 104 – 109 MIL · MIL 58% → 77% +19MIL 58% → 77%+19 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Warriors 72%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- GS -7.5
- ML GS -290 / MIL +240
- Pre-line forecast
- GS 68%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- GS -2.5
- GS 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.1 pts
- GS: Elo 60.6%, market 71.7%
- Fair odds
- GS -253
- MIL +253 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- GS 118.0 – 110.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | GS | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1568 | 1550 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +3 | −113 | GS: Usual rotation · MIL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −24 | — | GS crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | GS +75 Elo | GS 60.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | GS 68.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | GS 67.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | GS 71.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| GS | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 12th of 30120.8 | Points scored | 122.38th of 30 |
| 9th of 30115.2 | Points allowed | 116.313th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+5.6 | Margin | +6.08th of 30 |
| 9th of 30117.3 | Offense rating | 117.97th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.9 | Defense rating | 112.214th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30100.6 | Pace | 103.712th of 30 |
| 8th of 291–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
| 6th of 301542 | Opponent Elo | 147824th of 30 |
| 6th of 301568 | Elo rating | 155012th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Warriors
+3 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
−113 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  GS |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 47–47 | 47–41 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 29–31 | 29–28 |
| Underdog | 18–16 | 18–13 |
| Overs–unders | 47–47 | 46–42 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
GS 3–1 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.