Milwaukee Bucks at Indiana Pacers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors IND; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints33
- Ryan RollinsAssists7
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds13
Pacers- Pascal SiakamPoints32
- Pascal SiakamAssists8
- Isaiah JacksonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game117–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter117–115
- Q40.6(00:00.6) [Bucks] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)117–115
- Q40.6Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 16-foot two point shot117–115
- Q414.5Bucks Full timeout115–115
- Q414.6Aaron Nesmith makes 2-foot two point shot115–115
- Q428.9AJ Green makes free throw 2 of 2115–113
- Q428.9Bucks offensive team rebound114–113
- Q428.9AJ Green misses free throw 1 of 2114–113
- Q428.9Pascal Siakam loose ball foul114–113
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q42:22Myles Turner makes two point shotMIL 111 – 109 IND · MIL 54% → 72% +17MIL 54% → 72%+17 pts
- Q41:58Gary Trent Jr. makes 23-foot three point jumper (Myles Turner assists)MIL 114 – 109 IND · MIL 73% → 92% +19MIL 73% → 92%+19 pts
- Q41:43Aaron Nesmith makes 23-foot three point jumper (Pascal Siakam assists)MIL 114 – 112 IND · IND 7% → 26% +19IND 7% → 26%+19 pts
- Q414.6Aaron Nesmith makes 2-foot two point shotMIL 115 – 115 IND · IND 7% → 49% +42IND 7% → 49%+42 pts
- Q40.6Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 16-foot two point shotMIL 117 – 115 IND · MIL 50% → >99% +50MIL 50% → >99%+50 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 69%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -6.5
- ML MIL -250 / IND +210
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -3
- MIL 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.8 pts
- MIL: Elo 61.1%, market 68.9%
- Fair odds
- MIL -221
- IND +221 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 121.0 – 114.5 IND
- Posted spread, posted total 235.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | IND | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +20 | −103 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · IND: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | −12 | — | MIL crossed 1 time zone heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | MIL +78 Elo | MIL 61.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 60.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 60.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 68.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | IND |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30123.7 | Points scored | 112.525th of 30 |
| 20th of 30118.3 | Points allowed | 121.225th of 30 |
| 7th of 30+5.3 | Margin | −8.727th of 30 |
| 4th of 30119.4 | Offense rating | 104.429th of 30 |
| 18th of 30114.3 | Defense rating | 112.413th of 30 |
| 13th of 30103.6 | Pace | 104.010th of 30 |
| 9th of 291–1 | Road vs home | 1–222nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301491 | Opponent Elo | 15365th of 30 |
| 9th of 301555 | Elo rating | 155110th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+20 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Pacers
−103 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  IND |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–1 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–1 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | — |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–1 | 2–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–1 | 2–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 7–13 IND in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 20.
- Apr 29MIL 118 @ IND 119PlayoffsPicked IND 76%Hit
- Apr 27IND 129 @ MIL 103PlayoffsPicked MIL 62%Miss
- Apr 25IND 101 @ MIL 117PlayoffsPicked MIL 64%Hit
- Apr 22MIL 115 @ IND 123PlayoffsPicked IND 61%Hit
- Apr 19MIL 98 @ IND 117PlayoffsPicked IND 67%Hit
- Mar 15IND 119 @ MIL 126Picked MIL 59%Hit
- Mar 11MIL 114 @ IND 115Picked IND 54%Hit
- Dec 31MIL 120 @ IND 112Picked MIL 54%Hit