Sacramento Kings at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Kings- Zach LaVinePoints31
- Russell WestbrookAssists10
- Domantas SabonisRebounds13
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints26
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists8
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game135–133
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter135–133
- Q40.9Giannis Antetokounmpo offensive rebound135–133
- Q41.1AJ Green misses free throw 2 of 2135–133
- Q41.1Dylan Cardwell enters the game for Dennis Schroder135–133
- Q41.1Drew Eubanks enters the game for DeMar DeRozan135–133
- Q41.1Jericho Sims enters the game for Gary Trent Jr.135–133
- Q41.1AJ Green makes free throw 1 of 2135–133
- Q41.1Zach LaVine personal foul135–132
- Q45.4Giannis Antetokounmpo offensive rebound135–132
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:54Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2SAC 124 – 120 MIL · MIL 9% → 27% +18MIL 9% → 27%+18 pts
- Q42:53Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 1-foot driving dunkSAC 128 – 125 MIL · MIL 17% → 30% +13MIL 17% → 30%+13 pts
- Q41:23Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 1-foot dunk (Ryan Rollins assists)SAC 131 – 129 MIL · MIL 13% → 30% +17MIL 13% → 30%+17 pts
- Q450.5Myles Turner makes 22-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)SAC 133 – 132 MIL · MIL 7% → 37% +30MIL 7% → 37%+30 pts
- Q414.8Dennis Schroder makes free throw 1 of 2SAC 134 – 132 MIL · SAC 76% → 92% +17SAC 76% → 92%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 68%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -6.5
- ML SAC +200 / MIL -240
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -6
- MIL 72%
- Ratings vs. market
- +4.5 pts
- MIL: Elo 72.5%, market 67.9%
- Fair odds
- MIL -212
- SAC +212 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SAC 113.0 – 119.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SAC | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1563 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −27 | +18 | SAC: Weaker than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +168 Elo | MIL 72.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 65.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 65.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 67.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SAC | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 28th of 30111.0 | Points scored | 121.87th of 30 |
| 16th of 30116.8 | Points allowed | 115.010th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−5.8 | Margin | +6.87th of 30 |
| 27th of 30107.4 | Offense rating | 116.97th of 30 |
| 13th of 30113.0 | Defense rating | 110.39th of 30 |
| 15th of 30103.3 | Pace | 104.38th of 30 |
| 22nd of 290–3 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 30 |
| 9th of 301533 | Opponent Elo | 149120th of 30 |
| 20th of 301476 | Elo rating | 15637th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Kings
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SAC |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 1–4 | 5–0 |
| Last 10 | 1–4 | 5–0 |
| Favorite | 0–2 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 1–2 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 4–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SAC 1–3 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.