Detroit Pistons at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pistons- Cade CunninghamPoints26
- Cade CunninghamAssists11
- Jalen DurenRebounds16
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints33
- Tyrese MaxeyAssists7
- Andre DrummondRebounds12
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–108
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–108
- Q40.176ers offensive team rebound111–108
- Q40.2Tyrese Maxey misses 25-foot three point pullup jump shot111–108
- Q416.976ers Full timeout111–108
- Q416.9Cade Cunningham makes 11-foot two point shot111–108
- Q431.4Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2109–108
- Q431.4Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 1 of 2109–107
- Q431.4Jalen Duren shooting foul109–106
- Q436.3Andre Drummond defensive rebound109–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:54Tyrese Maxey makes 24-foot three point jumper (VJ Edgecombe assists)DET 100 – 101 PHI · PHI 33% → 52% +19PHI 33% → 52%+19 pts
- Q42:09VJ Edgecombe makes 25-foot three point jumper (Quentin Grimes assists)DET 106 – 104 PHI · PHI 10% → 29% +19PHI 10% → 29%+19 pts
- Q41:51Cade Cunningham makes driving dunkDET 108 – 104 PHI · DET 73% → 87% +15DET 73% → 87%+15 pts
- Q431.4Tyrese Maxey makes free throw 2 of 2DET 109 – 108 PHI · PHI 15% → 30% +15PHI 15% → 30%+15 pts
- Q416.9Cade Cunningham makes 11-foot two point shotDET 111 – 108 PHI · DET 76% → 98% +22DET 76% → 98%+22 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pistons 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- DET -4.5
- ML DET -195 / PHI +165
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 66%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET -4.5
- DET 67%
- Ratings vs. market
- +3.1 pts
- DET: Elo 66.7%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- DET -175
- PHI +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 119.0 – 114.5 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 233.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1535 | 1437 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | PHI on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +36 | +18 | DET: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | DET +121 Elo | DET 66.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 66.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 66.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DET | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 30116.7 | Points scored | 124.03rd of 30 |
| 4th of 30110.8 | Points allowed | 119.323rd of 30 |
| 7th of 30+5.9 | Margin | +4.79th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 118.04th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.6 | Defense rating | 113.615th of 30 |
| 12th of 30103.2 | Pace | 103.910th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303–1 | Road vs home | 3–110th of 30 |
| 21st of 301489 | Opponent Elo | 147226th of 30 |
| 10th of 301535 | Elo rating | 143724th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Pistons
+36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+18 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 7–2 | 8–1 |
| Last 10 | 7–2 | 8–1 |
| Favorite | 5–1 | 3–1 |
| Underdog | 2–1 | 5–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 7–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 7–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 2–5 PHI in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.