Toronto Raptors at Philadelphia 76ers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHI; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Immanuel QuickleyPoints22
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists6
- Brandon IngramRebounds8
76ers- Tyrese MaxeyPoints31
- Trendon WatfordAssists10
- Trendon WatfordRebounds17
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–130
- Q47.2shot clock turnover120–130
- Q429.9Trendon Watford defensive rebound120–130
- Q433.8Immanuel Quickley misses 27-foot three point jumper120–130
- Q439.4Joel Embiid makes free throw 2 of 2120–130
- Q439.4Joel Embiid makes free throw 1 of 2120–129
- Q439.4RJ Barrett shooting foul120–128
- Q450.0Trendon Watford offensive rebound120–128
- Q451.8VJ Edgecombe misses free throw 2 of 2120–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:51Joel Embiid makes 25-foot three point jumper (Trendon Watford assists)TOR 101 – 107 PHI · PHI 69% → 80% +11PHI 69% → 80%+11 pts
- Q45:27Jamal Shead makes 24-foot three point jumper (Brandon Ingram assists)TOR 111 – 114 PHI · TOR 15% → 28% +13TOR 15% → 28%+13 pts
- Q43:38VJ Edgecombe makes 16-foot two point shotTOR 113 – 119 PHI · PHI 80% → 89% +9PHI 80% → 89%+9 pts
- Q43:25RJ Barrett makes 27-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)TOR 116 – 119 PHI · TOR 10% → 25% +15TOR 10% → 25%+15 pts
- Q43:06VJ Edgecombe makes 1-foot two point shotTOR 116 – 121 PHI · PHI 76% → 87% +11PHI 76% → 87%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
76ers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- PHI -5.5
- ML TOR +165 / PHI -195
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI -1.5
- PHI 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.2 pts
- PHI: Elo 56.4%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- PHI -175
- TOR +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 115.5 – 121.0 PHI
- Posted spread, posted total 236.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | PHI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1476 | 1428 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | TOR on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +59 | +76 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHI: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +45 Elo | PHI 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 59.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| 10th of 30119.2 | Points scored | 123.32nd of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.7 | Points allowed | 119.323rd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+3.6 | Margin | +4.09th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.9 | Offense rating | 117.25th of 30 |
| 14th of 30112.4 | Defense rating | 113.417th of 30 |
| 17th of 30102.7 | Pace | 103.810th of 30 |
| 5th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 2–112th of 30 |
| 8th of 301514 | Opponent Elo | 147225th of 30 |
| 22nd of 301476 | Elo rating | 142824th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+59 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
76ers
+76 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–4 | 7–1 |
| Last 10 | 5–4 | 7–1 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 2–1 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 5–0 |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 6–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 6–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 4–4 PHI in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Mar 30TOR 127 @ PHI 109Picked TOR 68%Hit
- Mar 12PHI 105 @ TOR 118Picked TOR 57%Hit
- Feb 11TOR 106 @ PHI 103Picked PHI 81%Miss
- Oct 25PHI 107 @ TOR 115Picked PHI 65%Miss
- Mar 31PHI 135 @ TOR 120Picked PHI 58%Hit
- Dec 22TOR 111 @ PHI 121Picked PHI 78%Hit
- Nov 2TOR 99 @ PHI 114Picked PHI 66%Hit
- Oct 28PHI 114 @ TOR 107Picked PHI 51%Hit