Milwaukee Bucks at Toronto Raptors, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors TOR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints22
- Ryan RollinsAssists5
- Bobby PortisRebounds9
Raptors- RJ BarrettPoints23
- Jamal SheadAssists8
- Jakob PoeltlRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game100–128
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter100–128
- Q44.2shot clock turnover100–128
- Q428.2Mark Sears makes free throw 2 of 2100–128
- Q428.2Mark Sears makes free throw 1 of 299–128
- Q428.2Ja'Kobe Walter personal foul98–128
- Q440.4Gradey Dick makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jonathan Mogbo assists)98–128
- Q452.3Gary Harris makes two point shot (Andre Jackson Jr. assists)98–125
- Q41:04Jericho Sims defensive rebound96–125
- Q41:06Jonathan Mogbo misses driving layup96–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q110:10Gary Trent Jr. makes 23-foot three point shot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)MIL 9 – 6 TOR · MIL 46% → 52% +6MIL 46% → 52%+6 pts
- Q19:51Immanuel Quickley makes 23-foot three point jumper (RJ Barrett assists)MIL 9 – 9 TOR · TOR 48% → 54% +6TOR 48% → 54%+6 pts
- Q19:20Scottie Barnes makes 26-foot three point jumper (Immanuel Quickley assists)MIL 11 – 12 TOR · TOR 50% → 56% +6TOR 50% → 56%+6 pts
- Q13:51Jamal Shead makes 26-foot three pointer (Sandro Mamukelashvili assists)MIL 24 – 29 TOR · TOR 58% → 65% +7TOR 58% → 65%+7 pts
- Q11:36Sandro Mamukelashvili makes 26-foot three point shot (Scottie Barnes assists)MIL 29 – 34 TOR · TOR 58% → 65% +7TOR 58% → 65%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Raptors 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- TOR -2.5
- ML MIL +110 / TOR -130
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- TOR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 50.9%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -119
- MIL +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 117.5 – 120.0 TOR
- Posted spread, posted total 237.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1558 | 1444 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +19 | +64 | MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups · TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +6 Elo | TOR 50.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 53.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIL | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30122.7 | Points scored | 119.411th of 30 |
| 18th of 30117.9 | Points allowed | 120.623rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.9 | Margin | −1.120th of 30 |
| 5th of 30118.2 | Offense rating | 115.511th of 30 |
| 18th of 30113.6 | Defense rating | 116.626th of 30 |
| 11th of 30103.8 | Pace | 103.216th of 30 |
| 5th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 1–222nd of 30 |
| 20th of 301498 | Opponent Elo | 151411th of 30 |
| 9th of 301558 | Elo rating | 144423rd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bucks
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Raptors
+64 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–2 | 3–4 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 3–4 |
| Favorite | 1–2 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 4–0 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 4–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 4–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 5–2 TOR in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.