Toronto Raptors at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Raptors- Brandon IngramPoints20
- Immanuel QuickleyAssists6
- Scottie BarnesRebounds10
Hawks- Jalen JohnsonPoints21
- Dyson DanielsAssists8
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game109–97
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter109–97
- Q40.1Zaccharie Risacher defensive rebound109–97
- Q40.5Kristaps Porzingis blocks Brandon Ingram 's 21-foot two point shot109–97
- Q42.6Raptors offensive team rebound109–97
- Q44.8Immanuel Quickley misses 25-foot three point jumper109–97
- Q411.8Brandon Ingram defensive rebound109–97
- Q414.6Zaccharie Risacher misses 20-foot jumper109–97
- Q422.5Scottie Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2109–97
- Q422.5Scottie Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2108–97
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:11Gradey Dick makes 22-foot three point jumper (Collin Murray-Boyles assists)TOR 73 – 75 ATL · TOR 29% → 40% +11TOR 29% → 40%+11 pts
- Q49:42Gradey Dick makes 23-foot three point jumper (Scottie Barnes assists)TOR 76 – 81 ATL · TOR 17% → 27% +10TOR 17% → 27%+10 pts
- Q47:31Scottie Barnes makes driving layupTOR 82 – 81 ATL · TOR 43% → 54% +10TOR 43% → 54%+10 pts
- Q47:07Immanuel Quickley makes 25-foot three pointer (Brandon Ingram assists)TOR 85 – 81 ATL · TOR 54% → 69% +15TOR 54% → 69%+15 pts
- Q44:22Dyson Daniels makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)TOR 91 – 86 ATL · ATL 9% → 20% +11ATL 9% → 20%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Hawks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- ATL -2.5
- ML TOR +105 / ATL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL -0.5
- ATL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- ATL: Elo 51.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ATL -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 116.0 – 118.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1464 | 1487 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +74 | +25 | TOR: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +10 Elo | ATL 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 54.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| TOR | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30120.5 | Points scored | 116.619th of 30 |
| 18th of 30118.0 | Points allowed | 117.415th of 30 |
| 13th of 30+2.5 | Margin | −0.819th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.0 | Offense rating | 112.221st of 30 |
| 20th of 30114.5 | Defense rating | 113.016th of 30 |
| 16th of 30102.8 | Pace | 103.611th of 30 |
| 10th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 1–223rd of 30 |
| 9th of 301516 | Opponent Elo | 15177th of 30 |
| 23rd of 301464 | Elo rating | 148718th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Raptors
+74 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–4 | 3–5 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 3–5 |
| Favorite | 2–2 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | 2–2 | 2–2 |
| Overs–unders | 4–4 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–4 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 5–3 ATL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 8.
- Oct 22TOR 138 @ ATL 118Picked ATL 66%Miss
- Jan 25TOR 117 @ ATL 94Picked ATL 66%Miss
- Jan 23TOR 122 @ ATL 119Picked ATL 65%Miss
- Dec 29ATL 136 @ TOR 107Picked TOR 50%Miss
- Feb 23TOR 123 @ ATL 121Picked ATL 67%Miss
- Jan 28TOR 125 @ ATL 126Picked ATL 56%Hit
- Dec 15ATL 125 @ TOR 104Picked TOR 54%Miss
- Dec 13ATL 128 @ TOR 135Picked TOR 51%Hit