Orlando Magic at Atlanta Hawks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ATL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints22
- Paolo BancheroAssists8
- Paolo BancheroRebounds11
Hawks- Zaccharie RisacherPoints21
- Dyson DanielsAssists6
- Onyeka OkongwuRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–127
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–127
- Q43.8shot clock turnover112–127
- Q428.0Noah Penda makes driving layup112–127
- Q440.4Vit Krejci makes driving layup (Keaton Wallace assists)110–127
- Q455.0Noah Penda makes free throw 2 of 2110–125
- Q455.0Caleb Houstan enters the game for Nickeil Alexander-Walker109–125
- Q455.0Noah Penda makes free throw 1 of 2109–125
- Q455.0Asa Newell shooting foul108–125
- Q455.0Noah Penda offensive rebound108–125
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q27:05Tristan da Silva makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 33 – 41 ATL · ORL 31% → 38% +7ORL 31% → 38%+7 pts
- Q26:20Desmond Bane makes 25-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 36 – 43 ATL · ORL 32% → 40% +7ORL 32% → 40%+7 pts
- Q26:08Dyson Daniels makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jalen Johnson assists)ORL 36 – 46 ATL · ATL 60% → 68% +7ATL 60% → 68%+7 pts
- Q25:33Onyeka Okongwu makes 23-foot three point jumper (Nickeil Alexander-Walker assists)ORL 38 – 49 ATL · ATL 63% → 70% +7ATL 63% → 70%+7 pts
- Q25:11Anthony Black makes 22-foot three point step back jumpshot (Paolo Banchero assists)ORL 41 – 49 ATL · ORL 29% → 37% +7ORL 29% → 37%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -3.5
- ML ORL -165 / ATL +140
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -0.5
- ORL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.5 pts
- ORL: Elo 51.4%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- ORL -149
- ATL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ORL 116.0 – 112.5 ATL
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ORL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1473 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +47 | +12 | ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups · ATL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +10 Elo | ORL 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 54.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 54.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| ORL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 30116.9 | Points scored | 115.122nd of 30 |
| 13th of 30116.3 | Points allowed | 118.119th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.6 | Margin | −3.022nd of 30 |
| 21st of 30111.6 | Offense rating | 110.525th of 30 |
| 11th of 30111.1 | Defense rating | 113.317th of 30 |
| 5th of 30104.4 | Pace | 104.09th of 30 |
| 10th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 0–227th of 30 |
| 27th of 301451 | Opponent Elo | 15209th of 30 |
| 20th of 301483 | Elo rating | 147322nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Magic
+47 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Hawks
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ORL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Last 10 | 2–5 | 2–5 |
| Favorite | 2–5 | 1–3 |
| Underdog | — | 1–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–4 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–4 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ORL 3–6 ATL in their last 9 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 9.
- Oct 24ATL 111 @ ORL 107Picked ORL 66%Miss
- Apr 13ORL 105 @ ATL 117Picked ORL 60%Miss
- Apr 8ATL 112 @ ORL 119Picked ORL 64%Hit
- Feb 20ORL 114 @ ATL 108Picked ORL 53%Hit
- Feb 10ATL 112 @ ORL 106Picked ORL 68%Miss
- Feb 25ORL 92 @ ATL 109Picked ORL 56%Miss
- Jan 17ORL 104 @ ATL 106Picked ORL 51%Miss
- Jan 7ATL 110 @ ORL 117Picked ORL 56%Hit