Houston Rockets at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Alperen SengunPoints25
- Alperen SengunAssists8
- Alperen SengunRebounds8
Spurs- Harrison BarnesPoints24
- Stephon CastleAssists13
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–121
- Q40.0Harrison Barnes bad pass (Josh Okogie steals)110–121
- Q45.9Tari Eason double dribble turnover110–121
- Q411.6Harrison Barnes makes driving layup110–121
- Q413.9Alperen Sengun bad pass (Harrison Barnes steals)110–119
- Q418.9Harrison Barnes makes free throw 2 of 2110–119
- Q418.9Harrison Barnes makes free throw 1 of 2110–118
- Q418.9Kevin Durant personal take foul110–117
- Q420.8Alperen Sengun makes tip shot110–117
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q410:35Reed Sheppard makes 26-foot three pointerHOU 85 – 89 SA · HOU 26% → 38% +12HOU 26% → 38%+12 pts
- Q47:16Devin Vassell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)HOU 92 – 100 SA · SA 71% → 83% +12SA 71% → 83%+12 pts
- Q44:31Julian Champagnie makes 22-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)HOU 100 – 106 SA · SA 67% → 83% +16SA 67% → 83%+16 pts
- Q44:12Reed Sheppard makes 25-foot three pointerHOU 103 – 106 SA · HOU 16% → 33% +16HOU 16% → 33%+16 pts
- Q43:16Julian Champagnie makes 25-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)HOU 105 – 111 SA · SA 70% → 87% +17SA 70% → 87%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -4.5
- ML HOU -170 / SA +145
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 67%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- HOU -4
- HOU 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.1 pts
- HOU: Elo 65.8%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- HOU -154
- SA +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 114.5 – 110.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 224.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1577 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +58 | +29 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Travel | — | −24 | SA crossed 2 time zones heading east to this game: 12 Elo per zone for body-clock lag |
| Elo ratings | HOU +113 Elo | HOU 65.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 67.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 67.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30124.7 | Points scored | 117.914th of 30 |
| 5th of 30111.7 | Points allowed | 109.61st of 30 |
| 1st of 30+13.0 | Margin | +8.34th of 30 |
| 1st of 30121.1 | Offense rating | 115.712th of 30 |
| 4th of 30108.5 | Defense rating | 107.62nd of 30 |
| 27th of 3099.7 | Pace | 100.425th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303–1 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 30 |
| 17th of 301503 | Opponent Elo | 145729th of 30 |
| 8th of 301577 | Elo rating | 148122nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+58 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Spurs
+29 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–2 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 4–2 | 4–2 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 1–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–2 | 3–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–2 | 3–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 6–2 SA in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Feb 26SA 106 @ HOU 118Picked HOU 72%Hit
- Nov 6SA 100 @ HOU 127Picked HOU 70%Hit
- Oct 28HOU 106 @ SA 101Picked HOU 56%Hit
- Oct 26HOU 106 @ SA 109Picked HOU 53%Miss
- Mar 12HOU 103 @ SA 101Picked SA 52%Miss
- Mar 5SA 101 @ HOU 114Picked HOU 59%Hit
- Dec 11SA 82 @ HOU 93Picked HOU 72%Hit
- Oct 27HOU 122 @ SA 126Picked SA 64%Hit