San Antonio Spurs at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints19
- Stephon CastleAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds8
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints35
- Luka DoncicAssists13
- Deandre AytonRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game116–118
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter116–118
- Q40.1Keldon Johnson offensive rebound116–118
- Q40.2Julian Champagnie misses free throw 2 of 2116–118
- Q40.2Jaxson Hayes enters the game for Jake LaRavia116–118
- Q40.2Spurs offensive team rebound116–118
- Q40.2Julian Champagnie misses free throw 1 of 2116–118
- Q40.2(00:00.2) [Spurs] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (CALL STANDS)116–118
- Q40.2Jake LaRavia shooting foul116–118
- Q40.4Jake LaRavia enters the game for Jaxson Hayes116–118
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q45:15Rui Hachimura makes 28-foot three point jumper (Luka Doncic assists)SA 106 – 104 LAL · LAL 21% → 37% +16LAL 21% → 37%+16 pts
- Q43:21Marcus Smart makes two point shotSA 108 – 108 LAL · LAL 34% → 49% +15LAL 34% → 49%+15 pts
- Q43:02Victor Wembanyama makes 16-foot pullup jump shotSA 110 – 108 LAL · SA 51% → 67% +16SA 51% → 67%+16 pts
- Q42:31Luka Doncic makes 25-foot three point step back jumpshotSA 112 – 113 LAL · LAL 32% → 58% +26LAL 32% → 58%+26 pts
- Q41:27Deandre Ayton makes free throw 1 of 2SA 112 – 114 LAL · LAL 61% → 72% +11LAL 61% → 72%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- SA -1.5
- ML SA -125 / LAL +105
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 41%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -3
- SA 38%
- Ratings vs. market
- −14.8 pts
- SA: Elo 38.5%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- SA -114
- LAL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 115.0 – 113.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1484 | 1588 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +33 | −25 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +82 Elo | LAL 61.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 59.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 59.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 13th of 30118.2 | Points scored | 119.811th of 30 |
| 1st of 30108.2 | Points allowed | 116.613th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+10.0 | Margin | +3.111th of 30 |
| 10th of 30116.1 | Offense rating | 117.06th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30106.3 | Defense rating | 113.918th of 30 |
| 25th of 30100.1 | Pace | 102.319th of 30 |
| 4th of 302–1 | Road vs home | 2–216th of 30 |
| 29th of 301433 | Opponent Elo | 15205th of 30 |
| 19th of 301484 | Elo rating | 15886th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+33 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Lakers
−25 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–1 | 6–2 |
| Last 10 | 5–1 | 6–2 |
| Favorite | 4–1 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders | 2–4 | 7–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 2–4 | 7–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 2–5 LAL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.