Los Angeles Lakers at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
You didn't pick this one.
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Lakers- Deandre AytonPoints29
- Nick Smith Jr.Assists6
- Deandre AytonRebounds10
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints33
- Jrue HolidayAssists6
- Shaedon SharpeRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game123–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter123–115
- Q417.5Deni Avdija makes two point shot (Jerami Grant assists)123–115
- Q423.4Marcus Smart bad pass (Shaedon Sharpe steals)123–113
- Q441.3Jerami Grant makes 26-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)123–113
- Q443.0Jrue Holiday offensive rebound123–110
- Q445.2Deni Avdija misses 29-foot three point jumper123–110
- Q451.1Deandre Ayton makes alley oop dunk shot (Nick Smith Jr. assists)123–110
- Q41:09Deni Avdija makes 1-foot driving dunk121–110
- Q41:12Rui Hachimura makes 14-foot pullup jump shot (Jake LaRavia assists)121–108
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q31:45Shaedon Sharpe makes 28-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)LAL 86 – 82 POR · POR 38% → 50% +11POR 38% → 50%+11 pts
- Q410:57Bronny James makes 25-foot three point jumper (Dalton Knecht assists)LAL 93 – 88 POR · LAL 45% → 58% +13LAL 45% → 58%+13 pts
- Q44:59Deni Avdija makes 23-foot three point jumper (Jerami Grant assists)LAL 107 – 103 POR · POR 18% → 34% +15POR 18% → 34%+15 pts
- Q43:45Shaedon Sharpe makes layup (Jrue Holiday assists)LAL 109 – 105 POR · POR 18% → 29% +11POR 18% → 29%+11 pts
- Q43:22Jake LaRavia makes 3-foot two point shotLAL 111 – 105 POR · LAL 73% → 84% +11LAL 73% → 84%+11 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Trail Blazers 76%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 75–80% have won 75.8% of 293 graded games.
- Market
- POR -10.5
- ML LAL +300 / POR -400
- Pre-line forecast
- POR 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -7.5
- POR 78%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.4 pts
- POR: Elo 77.6%, market 76.2%
- Fair odds
- POR -320
- LAL +320 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- LAL 108.5 – 119.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | LAL | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1571 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | LAL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −142 | +59 | LAL: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Damian Lillard −40 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +216 Elo | POR 77.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | POR 73.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | POR 73.5% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | POR 76.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| LAL | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30119.3 | Points scored | 121.29th of 30 |
| 17th of 30116.9 | Points allowed | 116.715th of 30 |
| 12th of 30+2.4 | Margin | +4.59th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.3 | Offense rating | 113.216th of 30 |
| 19th of 30113.9 | Defense rating | 109.05th of 30 |
| 18th of 30102.4 | Pace | 107.32nd of 30 |
| 1st of 303–0 | Road vs home | 2–111th of 30 |
| 6th of 301533 | Opponent Elo | 15395th of 30 |
| 7th of 301571 | Elo rating | 150916th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Lakers
−142 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+59 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles tendon−40 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  LAL |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–2 | 5–1 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 5–1 |
| Favorite | 2–0 | 1–1 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 6–1 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–1 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
LAL 6–2 POR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Oct 27POR 122 @ LAL 108Picked POR 57%Hit
- Apr 13LAL 81 @ POR 109Picked POR 65%Hit
- Feb 20LAL 110 @ POR 102Picked LAL 53%Hit
- Jan 2POR 106 @ LAL 114Picked LAL 70%Hit
- Dec 8POR 98 @ LAL 107Picked LAL 72%Hit
- Jan 21POR 110 @ LAL 134Picked LAL 73%Hit
- Nov 17LAL 107 @ POR 95Picked POR 50%Miss
- Nov 12POR 110 @ LAL 116Picked POR 56%Miss