Miami Heat at Los Angeles Lakers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Points31
- Davion MitchellAssists8
- Andrew WigginsRebounds9
Lakers- Luka DoncicPoints29
- Austin ReavesAssists11
- Luka DoncicRebounds11
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–130
- Q413.4Jake LaRavia defensive rebound120–130
- Q415.3Jaime Jaquez Jr. misses free throw 1 of 1120–130
- Q415.3Dalton Knecht enters the game for Luka Doncic120–130
- Q415.3Marcus Smart shooting foul120–130
- Q415.3Jaime Jaquez Jr. makes driving layup120–130
- Q422.1Luka Doncic makes free throw 2 of 2118–130
- Q422.1Bronny James enters the game for Austin Reaves118–129
- Q422.1Luka Doncic makes free throw 1 of 2118–129
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q324.8Dru Smith makes 28-foot three pointerMIA 98 – 102 LAL · MIA 19% → 28% +9MIA 19% → 28%+9 pts
- Q49:42Rui Hachimura makes 25-foot three point jumper (Austin Reaves assists)MIA 102 – 107 LAL · LAL 65% → 77% +12LAL 65% → 77%+12 pts
- Q48:03Nikola Jovic makes 29-foot three pointer (Jaime Jaquez Jr. assists)MIA 107 – 111 LAL · MIA 15% → 26% +11MIA 15% → 26%+11 pts
- Q46:53Marcus Smart makes 24-foot three point jumper (Bronny James assists)MIA 107 – 114 LAL · LAL 75% → 86% +11LAL 75% → 86%+11 pts
- Q45:13Austin Reaves makes 17-foot two point shotMIA 110 – 116 LAL · LAL 77% → 86% +8LAL 77% → 86%+8 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Lakers 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- LAL -4.5
- ML MIA +165 / LAL -195
- Pre-line forecast
- LAL 72%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAL -4
- LAL 66%
- Ratings vs. market
- +2.0 pts
- LAL: Elo 65.7%, market 63.7%
- Fair odds
- LAL -175
- MIA +175 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 114.0 – 118.5 LAL
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | LAL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1517 | 1564 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −6 | +23 | MIA: Missing Norman Powell −21 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · LAL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAL +113 Elo | LAL 65.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAL 72.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAL 72.0% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAL 63.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | LAL |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 30125.4 | Points scored | 117.514th of 30 |
| 8th of 30114.0 | Points allowed | 116.313th of 30 |
| 4th of 30+11.4 | Margin | +1.213th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.2 | Offense rating | 115.411th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30105.7 | Defense rating | 114.317th of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.5 | Pace | 101.721st of 30 |
| 16th of 291–2 | Road vs home | 1–221st of 30 |
| 23rd of 301477 | Opponent Elo | 15365th of 30 |
| 15th of 301517 | Elo rating | 15648th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−6 Elo- Norman Powell strained right groin−21 Elo
Lakers
+23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  LAL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–1 | 4–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–1 | 4–2 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 1–0 |
| Underdog | 3–1 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders | 3–2 | 5–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–2 | 5–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 3–1 LAL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.