Miami Heat at San Antonio Spurs, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors SA; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints31
- Jaime Jaquez Jr.Assists6
- Bam AdebayoRebounds10
Spurs- Victor WembanyamaPoints27
- Stephon CastleAssists8
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game101–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter101–107
- Q47.5Julian Champagnie defensive rebound101–107
- Q411.2Bam Adebayo misses 29-foot three point shot101–107
- Q414.6Heat Full timeout101–107
- Q414.6Victor Wembanyama makes free throw 2 of 2101–107
- Q414.6Spurs offensive team rebound101–106
- Q414.6Victor Wembanyama misses free throw 1 of 2101–106
- Q414.6(00:14.6) [Heat] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)101–106
- Q414.6Andrew Wiggins shooting foul101–106
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q47:06Harrison Barnes makes layup (Dylan Harper assists)MIA 89 – 90 SA · SA 51% → 62% +11SA 51% → 62%+11 pts
- Q46:44Bam Adebayo makes 6-foot two point shotMIA 91 – 90 SA · MIA 38% → 49% +11MIA 38% → 49%+11 pts
- Q45:26Devin Vassell makes 25-foot three point jumper (Victor Wembanyama assists)MIA 91 – 93 SA · SA 50% → 68% +18SA 50% → 68%+18 pts
- Q44:58Victor Wembanyama makes 27-foot three point jumper (Julian Champagnie assists)MIA 91 – 96 SA · SA 68% → 83% +15SA 68% → 83%+15 pts
- Q44:18Harrison Barnes makes 22-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)MIA 93 – 99 SA · SA 74% → 88% +14SA 74% → 88%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SA -5.5
- ML MIA +190 / SA -225
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -2
- SA 59%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.9 pts
- SA: Elo 58.9%, market 66.8%
- Fair odds
- SA -201
- MIA +201 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 111.5 – 117.0 SA
- Posted spread, posted total 228.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | SA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1523 | 1493 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −5 | +51 | MIA: Missing Norman Powell −21 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · SA: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +62 Elo | SA 58.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 58.3% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 66.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | SA |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30131.5 | Points scored | 121.010th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.8 | Points allowed | 104.51st of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+15.8 | Margin | +16.51st of 30 |
| 5th of 30120.0 | Offense rating | 119.66th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30105.6 | Defense rating | 103.31st of 30 |
| 1st of 30109.1 | Pace | 98.828th of 30 |
| 8th of 291–1 | Road vs home | 2–01st of 30 |
| 25th of 301473 | Opponent Elo | 139530th of 30 |
| 14th of 301523 | Elo rating | 149318th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
−5 Elo- Norman Powell right groin strain−21 Elo
Spurs
+51 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  MIA |  SA |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 39–47 | 39–43 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–24 | 13–12 |
| Underdog | 18–23 | 26–31 |
| Overs–unders | 47–39 | 47–35 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 4–0 SA in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.