Denver Nuggets at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nuggets- Jamal MurrayPoints22
- Nikola JokicAssists9
- Nikola JokicRebounds14
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints23
- Jrue HolidayAssists13
- Donovan ClinganRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game107–109
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter107–109
- Q40.5Nuggets offensive team rebound107–109
- Q40.8Nikola Jokic misses 13-foot two point shot107–109
- Q41.4Jerami Grant makes free throw 2 of 2107–109
- Q41.4Jerami Grant makes free throw 1 of 2107–108
- Q41.4Cameron Johnson enters the game for Peyton Watson107–107
- Q41.4Jamal Murray enters the game for Bruce Brown107–107
- Q41.4Tim Hardaway Jr. enters the game for Christian Braun107–107
- Q41.4(00:01.4) [Nuggets] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)107–107
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q44:47Kris Murray makes 22-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)DEN 96 – 94 POR · POR 17% → 32% +15POR 17% → 32%+15 pts
- Q43:29Jrue Holiday makes 23-foot three point step back jumpshotDEN 98 – 99 POR · POR 31% → 53% +22POR 31% → 53%+22 pts
- Q43:02Nikola Jokic makes 7-foot two point shot (Cameron Johnson assists)DEN 100 – 99 POR · DEN 46% → 63% +16DEN 46% → 63%+16 pts
- Q427.7Jerami Grant makes free throw 2 of 2DEN 107 – 107 POR · POR 28% → 48% +20POR 28% → 48%+20 pts
- Q41.4Jerami Grant makes free throw 1 of 2DEN 107 – 108 POR · POR 50% → >99% +49POR 50% → >99%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Nuggets 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- DEN -5.5
- ML DEN -230 / POR +195
- Pre-line forecast
- DEN 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -1
- DEN 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −21.6 pts
- DEN: Elo 45.6%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- DEN -206
- POR +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DEN 123.0 – 117.5 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 240.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DEN | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1598 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −45 | +42 | DEN: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Damian Lillard −42 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +30 Elo | POR 54.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DEN 60.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DEN 58.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DEN 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| DEN | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 30128.3 | Points scored | 123.67th of 30 |
| 5th of 30112.5 | Points allowed | 118.618th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+15.8 | Margin | +5.010th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30123.9 | Offense rating | 113.914th of 30 |
| 5th of 30108.7 | Defense rating | 109.38th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30101.0 | Pace | 108.61st of 30 |
| 8th of 291–1 | Road vs home | 1–113th of 30 |
| 21st of 301487 | Opponent Elo | 15309th of 30 |
| 3rd of 301598 | Elo rating | 150517th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Nuggets
−45 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+42 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles tendon−42 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| Last season (2024-25) |  DEN |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 46–50 | 46–36 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–36 | 8–6 |
| Underdog | 18–14 | 38–30 |
| Overs–unders | 55–41 | 41–41 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DEN 6–2 POR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 8.
- Mar 21DEN 109 @ POR 128Picked DEN 54%Miss
- Feb 12POR 121 @ DEN 132Picked DEN 78%Hit
- Feb 10POR 117 @ DEN 146Picked DEN 78%Hit
- Dec 19DEN 124 @ POR 126Picked DEN 75%Miss
- Mar 23DEN 114 @ POR 111Picked DEN 62%Hit
- Feb 23DEN 127 @ POR 112Picked DEN 52%Hit
- Feb 4POR 103 @ DEN 112Picked DEN 78%Hit
- Feb 2POR 108 @ DEN 120Picked DEN 74%Hit