San Antonio Spurs at Phoenix Suns, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors PHX; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Spurs- Stephon CastlePoints26
- Stephon CastleAssists5
- Victor WembanyamaRebounds9
Suns- Devin BookerPoints28
- Devin BookerAssists13
- Mark WilliamsRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game118–130
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter118–130
- Q414.6David Jones Garcia makes driving layup118–130
- Q417.5David Jones Garcia offensive rebound116–130
- Q422.2Riley Minix misses 27-foot three point jumper116–130
- Q432.8Koby Brea makes free throw 2 of 2116–130
- Q432.8Koby Brea makes free throw 1 of 2116–129
- Q432.8Riley Minix personal foul116–128
- Q436.8Riley Minix makes tip shot116–128
- Q436.8Riley Minix offensive rebound114–128
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q14:59Collin Gillespie makes 23-foot three point shot (Devin Booker assists)SA 12 – 18 PHX · PHX 40% → 47% +7PHX 40% → 47%+7 pts
- Q14:27Ryan Dunn makes 25-foot three point jumper (Devin Booker assists)SA 12 – 21 PHX · PHX 47% → 54% +7PHX 47% → 54%+7 pts
- Q150.8Keldon Johnson makes 22-foot three point jumper (Stephon Castle assists)SA 22 – 27 PHX · SA 47% → 54% +7SA 47% → 54%+7 pts
- Q27:28Devin Booker makes 26-foot three point jumper (Royce O'Neale assists)SA 31 – 42 PHX · PHX 56% → 64% +7PHX 56% → 64%+7 pts
- Q24:29Jordan Goodwin makes 23-foot three point jumper (Mark Williams assists)SA 39 – 53 PHX · PHX 66% → 73% +7PHX 66% → 73%+7 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Spurs 67%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 65–70% have won 65.2% of 388 graded games.
- Market
- SA -5.5
- ML SA -230 / PHX +195
- Pre-line forecast
- SA 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- SA -3
- SA 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.4 pts
- SA: Elo 61.8%, market 67.3%
- Fair odds
- SA -206
- PHX +206 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- SA 116.5 – 111.0 PHX
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | SA | PHX | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1499 | 1472 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +57 | −36 | SA: Stronger than its recent lineups · PHX: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | SA +84 Elo | SA 61.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | SA 58.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | SA 58.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | SA 67.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| SA | Stat | PHX |
|---|---|---|
| 11th of 30118.2 | Points scored | 116.317th of 30 |
| 1st of 30103.8 | Points allowed | 121.023rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30+14.4 | Margin | −4.725th of 30 |
| 6th of 30116.9 | Offense rating | 110.523rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30102.6 | Defense rating | 114.920th of 30 |
| 28th of 3099.2 | Pace | 103.513th of 30 |
| 1st of 292–0 | Road vs home | 2–110th of 30 |
| 30th of 301418 | Opponent Elo | 147823rd of 30 |
| 17th of 301499 | Elo rating | 147222nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Spurs
+57 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Suns
−36 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  SA |  PHX |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–0 | 3–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–0 | 3–3 |
| Favorite | 4–0 | 2–0 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 1–3 |
| Overs–unders | 1–4 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 1–4 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
SA 4–3 PHX in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 7.