Houston Rockets at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rockets- Kevin DurantPoints31
- Kevin DurantAssists7
- Alperen SengunRebounds11
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints37
- Cole AnthonyAssists6
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds8
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game122–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter122–115
- Q41.2Giannis Antetokounmpo makes free throw 2 of 2122–115
- Q41.2Alperen Sengun enters the game for Josh Okogie122–114
- Q41.2Bucks offensive team rebound122–114
- Q41.2Giannis Antetokounmpo misses free throw 1 of 2122–114
- Q41.2Josh Okogie personal foul122–114
- Q41.2Giannis Antetokounmpo offensive rebound122–114
- Q42.7Ryan Rollins misses 27-foot three point pullup jump shot122–114
- Q413.3Kevin Durant makes free throw 2 of 2122–114
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q43:44Ryan Rollins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Kyle Kuzma assists)HOU 107 – 111 MIL · MIL 54% → 75% +21MIL 54% → 75%+21 pts
- Q42:28Jabari Smith Jr. makes 24-foot three point jumper (Kevin Durant assists)HOU 113 – 111 MIL · HOU 43% → 70% +27HOU 43% → 70%+27 pts
- Q42:03Ryan Rollins makes driving layup (AJ Green assists)HOU 113 – 113 MIL · MIL 29% → 48% +19MIL 29% → 48%+19 pts
- Q41:42Kevin Durant makes 13-foot pullup jump shotHOU 115 – 113 MIL · HOU 52% → 73% +21HOU 52% → 73%+21 pts
- Q41:09Alperen Sengun makes 5-foot two point shotHOU 117 – 113 MIL · HOU 76% → 92% +15HOU 76% → 92%+15 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rockets 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- HOU -3.5
- ML HOU -175 / MIL +150
- Pre-line forecast
- HOU 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- HOU 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.8 pts
- HOU: Elo 49.6%, market 61.4%
- Fair odds
- HOU -159
- MIL +159 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- HOU 118.0 – 114.5 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 232.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | HOU | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1561 | 1551 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +54 | +31 | HOU: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +3 Elo | MIL 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | HOU 56.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | HOU 55.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | HOU 61.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| HOU | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30122.9 | Points scored | 120.68th of 30 |
| 6th of 30112.9 | Points allowed | 118.119th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30+10.0 | Margin | +2.411th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30119.5 | Offense rating | 116.48th of 30 |
| 7th of 30109.8 | Defense rating | 114.019th of 30 |
| 27th of 3099.9 | Pace | 103.612th of 30 |
| 4th of 303–2 | Road vs home | 4–18th of 30 |
| 13th of 301505 | Opponent Elo | 149817th of 30 |
| 8th of 301561 | Elo rating | 15519th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Rockets
+54 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  HOU |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–3 | 6–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–3 | 6–3 |
| Favorite | 4–3 | 2–2 |
| Underdog | 1–0 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 6–2 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–2 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
HOU 2–2 MIL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.