Chicago Bulls at Milwaukee Bucks, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors MIL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Bulls- Matas BuzelisPoints20
- Josh GiddeyAssists14
- Matas BuzelisRebounds8
Bucks- Giannis AntetokounmpoPoints41
- Giannis AntetokounmpoAssists9
- Giannis AntetokounmpoRebounds15
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–126
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–126
- Q40.8Giannis Antetokounmpo bad pass (Josh Giddey steals)110–126
- Q42.0Josh Giddey makes free throw 2 of 2110–126
- Q42.0Bulls offensive team rebound109–126
- Q42.0Josh Giddey misses free throw 1 of 2109–126
- Q42.0Giannis Antetokounmpo personal foul109–126
- Q46.4Myles Turner makes 23-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)109–126
- Q410.9Tre Jones makes two point shot109–123
- Q412.5Tre Jones offensive rebound107–123
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q39:15Ryan Rollins makes 25-foot three point shot (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)CHI 59 – 58 MIL · MIL 45% → 54% +9MIL 45% → 54%+9 pts
- Q38:21Gary Trent Jr. makes 26-foot three point jumper (Giannis Antetokounmpo assists)CHI 59 – 61 MIL · MIL 54% → 63% +9MIL 54% → 63%+9 pts
- Q48:33Patrick Williams makes 28-foot three point jumper (Josh Giddey assists)CHI 95 – 98 MIL · CHI 20% → 31% +12CHI 20% → 31%+12 pts
- Q45:52Ryan Rollins makes 24-foot three point jumper (AJ Green assists)CHI 97 – 104 MIL · MIL 76% → 87% +12MIL 76% → 87%+12 pts
- Q45:14Giannis Antetokounmpo makes 26-foot three pointerCHI 99 – 107 MIL · MIL 81% → 91% +10MIL 81% → 91%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Bucks 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.5% of 392 graded games.
- Market
- MIL -4.5
- ML CHI +145 / MIL -170
- Pre-line forecast
- MIL 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIL -0.5
- MIL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.9 pts
- MIL: Elo 51.7%, market 60.7%
- Fair odds
- MIL -154
- CHI +154 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHI 117.5 – 122.0 MIL
- Posted spread, posted total 239.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHI | MIL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1550 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | +31 | +19 | CHI: Stronger than its recent lineups · MIL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +12 Elo | MIL 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 62.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 61.7% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIL 60.7% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| CHI | Stat | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30120.4 | Points scored | 119.910th of 30 |
| 12th of 30115.6 | Points allowed | 119.122nd of 30 |
| 8th of 30+4.9 | Margin | +0.816th of 30 |
| 7th of 30116.5 | Offense rating | 116.010th of 30 |
| 13th of 30111.8 | Defense rating | 115.222nd of 30 |
| 14th of 30103.2 | Pace | 103.412th of 30 |
| 11th of 301–1 | Road vs home | 3–19th of 30 |
| 10th of 301512 | Opponent Elo | 150017th of 30 |
| 9th of 301550 | Elo rating | 153811th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Bulls
+31 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Bucks
+19 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHI |  MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 5–2 | 5–3 |
| Last 10 | 5–2 | 5–3 |
| Favorite | 1–1 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | 4–1 | 4–1 |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 5–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 5–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHI 3–5 MIL in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.
- Dec 28MIL 111 @ CHI 116Picked MIL 53%Miss
- Dec 23MIL 112 @ CHI 91Picked CHI 56%Miss
- Nov 20CHI 106 @ MIL 122Picked MIL 76%Hit
- Oct 25CHI 133 @ MIL 122Picked MIL 78%Miss
- Mar 1MIL 113 @ CHI 97Picked CHI 56%Miss
- Dec 11CHI 129 @ MIL 133Picked MIL 74%Hit
- Nov 30MIL 113 @ CHI 120Picked MIL 73%Miss
- Nov 13CHI 109 @ MIL 118Picked MIL 63%Hit