Oklahoma City Thunder at Portland Trail Blazers, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors POR; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints35
- Cason WallaceAssists5
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds11
Trail Blazers- Deni AvdijaPoints26
- Deni AvdijaAssists9
- Deni AvdijaRebounds10
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game119–121
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter119–121
- Q40.6Robert Williams III defensive rebound119–121
- Q40.6Isaiah Joe misses free throw 2 of 2119–121
- Q40.6Jaylin Williams enters the game for Ajay Mitchell119–121
- Q40.6Isaiah Joe makes free throw 1 of 2119–121
- Q40.6Robert Williams III enters the game for Toumani Camara118–121
- Q40.6Donovan Clingan enters the game for Shaedon Sharpe118–121
- Q40.6(00:00.6) [Thunder] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)118–121
- Q40.6Toumani Camara shooting foul118–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:13Jrue Holiday makes 24-foot three point step back jumpshot (Jerami Grant assists)OKC 96 – 100 POR · POR 52% → 69% +17POR 52% → 69%+17 pts
- Q45:49Aaron Wiggins makes 25-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 99 – 100 POR · OKC 30% → 48% +17OKC 30% → 48%+17 pts
- Q45:05Toumani Camara makes 25-foot three point jumper (Deni Avdija assists)OKC 101 – 103 POR · POR 40% → 59% +19POR 40% → 59%+19 pts
- Q44:54Shai Gilgeous-Alexander makes 25-foot three pointerOKC 104 – 103 POR · OKC 40% → 60% +19OKC 40% → 60%+19 pts
- Q44:28Jerami Grant makes driving layupOKC 104 – 105 POR · POR 40% → 54% +14POR 40% → 54%+14 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -3.5
- ML OKC -165 / POR +140
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 64%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -1.5
- OKC 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- OKC: Elo 55.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- OKC -149
- POR +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 117.5 – 114.0 POR
- Posted spread, posted total 231.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | POR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1684 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | OKC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −23 | +57 | OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups · POR: Missing Damian Lillard −42 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +36 Elo | OKC 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 64.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 63.8% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | POR |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30122.6 | Points scored | 120.39th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.4 | Points allowed | 117.615th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+13.3 | Margin | +2.713th of 30 |
| 5th of 30117.2 | Offense rating | 113.317th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.5 | Defense rating | 110.710th of 30 |
| 29th of 3099.3 | Pace | 106.32nd of 30 |
| 1st of 304–0 | Road vs home | 2–216th of 30 |
| 27th of 301463 | Opponent Elo | 15452nd of 30 |
| 1st of 301684 | Elo rating | 149216th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−23 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Trail Blazers
+57 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles tendon−42 Elo
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  POR |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–4 | 5–2 |
| Last 10 | 4–4 | 5–2 |
| Favorite | 4–4 | 1–2 |
| Underdog | — | 4–0 |
| Overs–unders | 5–3 | 5–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–3 | 5–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 8–0 POR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 8.
- Mar 7POR 89 @ OKC 107Picked OKC 53%Hit
- Jan 26OKC 118 @ POR 108Picked OKC 86%Hit
- Nov 20POR 99 @ OKC 109Picked OKC 85%Hit
- Nov 1OKC 137 @ POR 114Picked OKC 84%Hit
- Mar 6OKC 128 @ POR 120Picked OKC 67%Hit
- Jan 23POR 109 @ OKC 111Picked OKC 84%Hit
- Jan 11POR 77 @ OKC 139Picked OKC 80%Hit
- Nov 19OKC 134 @ POR 91Picked OKC 66%Hit