Oklahoma City Thunder at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Thunder- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderPoints30
- Shai Gilgeous-AlexanderAssists12
- Isaiah HartensteinRebounds7
Clippers- James HardenPoints25
- James HardenAssists6
- Ivica ZubacRebounds7
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game126–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter126–107
- Q48.7Aaron Wiggins defensive rebound126–107
- Q410.7Kobe Brown misses 26-foot three point jumper126–107
- Q419.7shot clock turnover126–107
- Q443.8Cam Christie makes tip shot126–107
- Q443.8Cam Christie offensive rebound126–105
- Q444.0Cam Christie misses driving floating jump shot126–105
- Q457.9Kobe Brown defensive rebound126–105
- Q41:01Aaron Wiggins misses 10-foot two point shot126–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q37:39Derrick Jones Jr. makes 27-foot three point jumper (Nicolas Batum assists)OKC 65 – 70 LAC · LAC 40% → 50% +10LAC 40% → 50%+10 pts
- Q34:05Alex Caruso makes 28-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 78 – 75 LAC · OKC 65% → 74% +9OKC 65% → 74%+9 pts
- Q33:34Aaron Wiggins makes 28-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 81 – 78 LAC · OKC 64% → 74% +10OKC 64% → 74%+10 pts
- Q31:23Brook Lopez makes 26-foot three pointer (Bogdan Bogdanovic assists)OKC 88 – 86 LAC · LAC 20% → 30% +9LAC 20% → 30%+9 pts
- Q350.1Isaiah Joe makes 27-foot three point jumper (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander assists)OKC 91 – 86 LAC · OKC 70% → 80% +10OKC 70% → 80%+10 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Thunder 74%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- OKC -8.5
- ML OKC -340 / LAC +270
- Pre-line forecast
- OKC 69%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- OKC -5.5
- OKC 70%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- OKC: Elo 70.3%, market 74.1%
- Fair odds
- OKC -286
- LAC +286 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- OKC 114.0 – 105.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 219.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | OKC | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1676 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | LAC on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | −27 | −30 | OKC: Weaker than its recent lineups · LAC: Weaker than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | OKC +150 Elo | OKC 70.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | OKC 68.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | OKC 68.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | OKC 74.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| OKC | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 30122.1 | Points scored | 112.526th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30109.7 | Points allowed | 113.36th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30+12.4 | Margin | −0.820th of 30 |
| 10th of 30115.9 | Offense rating | 114.414th of 30 |
| 1st of 30104.1 | Defense rating | 115.223rd of 30 |
| 28th of 3099.4 | Pace | 98.230th of 30 |
| 1st of 303–0 | Road vs home | 3–18th of 30 |
| 28th of 301456 | Opponent Elo | 146525th of 30 |
| 1st of 301676 | Elo rating | 153313th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Thunder
−27 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
−30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  OKC |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–4 | 1–5 |
| Last 10 | 3–4 | 1–5 |
| Favorite | 3–4 | 1–5 |
| Underdog | — | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–3 | 4–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–3 | 4–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
OKC 6–1 LAC in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 7.