Miami Heat at LA Clippers, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors LAC; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Heat- Bam AdebayoPoints25
- Davion MitchellAssists9
- Bam AdebayoRebounds10
Clippers- James HardenPoints29
- James HardenAssists8
- Ivica ZubacRebounds18
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game120–119
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter120–119
- Q40.4Davion Mitchell defensive rebound120–119
- Q42.1Kawhi Leonard misses 26-foot three point pullup jump shot120–119
- Q416.5Norman Powell lost ball turnover (Ivica Zubac steals)120–119
- Q416.5Norman Powell vs. Ivica Zubac (Kawhi Leonard gains possession)120–119
- Q416.5John Collins enters the game for Kris Dunn120–119
- Q419.5Kris Dunn enters the game for John Collins120–119
- Q419.5Heat Full timeout120–119
- Q419.7James Harden makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Kawhi Leonard assists)120–119
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q46:26Andrew Wiggins makes 27-foot three point jumper (Pelle Larsson assists)MIA 110 – 107 LAC · MIA 42% → 59% +17MIA 42% → 59%+17 pts
- Q42:23Andrew Wiggins makes 27-foot three point jumper (Bam Adebayo assists)MIA 116 – 113 LAC · MIA 45% → 72% +27MIA 45% → 72%+27 pts
- Q41:46James Harden makes 29-foot three pointerMIA 116 – 116 LAC · LAC 24% → 54% +30LAC 24% → 54%+30 pts
- Q41:31Bam Adebayo makes 15-foot pullup jump shotMIA 118 – 116 LAC · MIA 46% → 69% +23MIA 46% → 69%+23 pts
- Q419.7James Harden makes 26-foot running pullup jump shot (Kawhi Leonard assists)MIA 120 – 119 LAC · LAC <1% → 28% +27LAC <1% → 28%+27 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Clippers 71%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 70–75% have won 75.3% of 360 graded games.
- Market
- LAC -7.5
- ML MIA +230 / LAC -280
- Pre-line forecast
- LAC 73%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- LAC -4
- LAC 65%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.1 pts
- LAC: Elo 64.7%, market 70.9%
- Fair odds
- LAC -243
- MIA +243 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIA 110.0 – 117.5 LAC
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIA | LAC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1511 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | −40 | — | MIA on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +12 | +13 | MIA: Stronger than its recent lineups · LAC: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | LAC +105 Elo | LAC 64.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | LAC 74.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | LAC 73.4% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | LAC 70.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| MIA | Stat | LAC |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 30124.5 | Points scored | 111.227th of 30 |
| 16th of 30116.7 | Points allowed | 112.04th of 30 |
| 5th of 30+7.8 | Margin | −0.819th of 30 |
| 11th of 30115.6 | Offense rating | 114.514th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30108.3 | Defense rating | 115.323rd of 30 |
| 1st of 30107.4 | Pace | 97.030th of 30 |
| 19th of 301–3 | Road vs home | 3–01st of 30 |
| 20th of 301495 | Opponent Elo | 145325th of 30 |
| 15th of 301511 | Elo rating | 153813th of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Heat
+12 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Clippers
+13 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIA |  LAC |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 4–2 | 1–4 |
| Last 10 | 4–2 | 1–4 |
| Favorite | 1–0 | 1–4 |
| Underdog | 3–2 | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–2 | 3–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–2 | 3–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIA 0–4 LAC in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.