Portland Trail Blazers at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Trail Blazers- Shaedon SharpePoints31
- Jrue HolidayAssists7
- Donovan ClinganRebounds9
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints28
- Desmond BaneAssists7
- Paolo BancheroRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game112–115
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter112–115
- Q40.0(00:00) [Trail Blazers] REF-INITIATED REVIEW (REPLAY SUPPORTS CALL)112–115
- Q40.0Desmond Bane makes 27-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)112–115
- Q41.9Desmond Bane enters the game for Jonathan Isaac112–112
- Q41.9Magic Full timeout112–112
- Q41.9Jrue Holiday lost ball turnover (Paolo Banchero steals)112–112
- Q44.5Deni Avdija enters the game for Donovan Clingan112–112
- Q44.5Shaedon Sharpe enters the game for Robert Williams III112–112
- Q44.5Jonathan Isaac enters the game for Desmond Bane112–112
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q446.5Deni Avdija makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jrue Holiday assists)POR 108 – 110 ORL · POR 2% → 20% +18POR 2% → 20%+18 pts
- Q422.0Shaedon Sharpe makes free throw 1 of 2POR 109 – 110 ORL · POR 12% → 27% +16POR 12% → 27%+16 pts
- Q410.6Jerami Grant makes alley oop layup (Toumani Camara assists)POR 111 – 110 ORL · POR 19% → 80% +61POR 19% → 80%+61 pts
- Q45.0Paolo Banchero makes driving layupPOR 112 – 112 ORL · ORL <1% → 50% +50ORL <1% → 50%+50 pts
- Q40.0Desmond Bane makes 27-foot three point jumper (Franz Wagner assists)POR 112 – 115 ORL · ORL 51% → 100% +49ORL 51% → 100%+49 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 49.4% of 342 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -2.5
- ML POR +105 / ORL -125
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- POR -1.5
- ORL 43%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.0 pts
- ORL: Elo 43.2%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ORL -114
- POR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- POR 116.0 – 118.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 234.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | POR | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1490 | 1474 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Rest | — | −40 | ORL on the second night of a back-to-back |
| Lineups | +58 | +30 | POR: Missing Damian Lillard −40 · otherwise stronger than recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | POR +48 Elo | POR 56.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 51.6% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| POR | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 30121.6 | Points scored | 116.018th of 30 |
| 24th of 30119.8 | Points allowed | 116.214th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+1.8 | Margin | −0.219th of 30 |
| 17th of 30113.4 | Offense rating | 112.321st of 30 |
| 14th of 30111.7 | Defense rating | 112.515th of 30 |
| 2nd of 30107.2 | Pace | 103.112th of 30 |
| 9th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 2–321st of 30 |
| 2nd of 301555 | Opponent Elo | 148622nd of 30 |
| 19th of 301490 | Elo rating | 147421st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Trail Blazers
+58 Elo- Damian Lillard left achilles tendon−40 Elo
Magic
+30 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  POR |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 6–3 | 3–7 |
| Last 10 | 6–3 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 1–3 | 3–7 |
| Underdog | 5–0 | — |
| Overs–unders | 7–2 | 5–5 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–2 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
POR 2–2 ORL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.