Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints27
- Payton PritchardAssists5
- Luka GarzaRebounds8
Magic- Paolo BancheroPoints28
- Desmond BaneAssists6
- Franz WagnerRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game111–107
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter111–107
- Q44.7Franz Wagner makes free throw 2 of 2111–107
- Q44.7Payton Pritchard enters the game for Hugo Gonzalez111–106
- Q44.7Luka Garza enters the game for Josh Minott111–106
- Q44.7Franz Wagner makes free throw 1 of 2111–106
- Q44.7Jaylen Brown personal take foul111–105
- Q46.1Derrick White makes free throw 2 of 2111–105
- Q46.1Celtics offensive team rebound110–105
- Q46.1Derrick White misses free throw 1 of 2110–105
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q48:27Hugo Gonzalez makes 23-foot three point jumper (Derrick White assists)BOS 88 – 85 ORL · BOS 46% → 61% +15BOS 46% → 61%+15 pts
- Q41:46Paolo Banchero makes 18-foot step back jumpshot (Desmond Bane assists)BOS 101 – 99 ORL · ORL 15% → 31% +16ORL 15% → 31%+16 pts
- Q41:35Jaylen Brown makes 31-foot three pointerBOS 104 – 99 ORL · BOS 70% → 92% +22BOS 70% → 92%+22 pts
- Q459.6Paolo Banchero makes 11-foot two point shotBOS 104 – 103 ORL · ORL 15% → 37% +22ORL 15% → 37%+22 pts
- Q445.0Derrick White makes 25-foot three point jumper (Jordan Walsh assists)BOS 107 – 103 ORL · BOS 65% → 95% +30BOS 65% → 95%+30 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -3.5
- ML BOS +135 / ORL -155
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ORL -1.5
- ORL 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- ORL: Elo 55.2%, market 58.8%
- Fair odds
- ORL -143
- BOS +143 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 112.0 – 115.5 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 227.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1597 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −67 | +49 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +36 Elo | ORL 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 60.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 60.1% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 58.8% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 30113.0 | Points scored | 117.016th of 30 |
| 3rd of 30110.7 | Points allowed | 116.815th of 30 |
| 11th of 30+2.3 | Margin | +0.217th of 30 |
| 16th of 30113.5 | Offense rating | 112.520th of 30 |
| 9th of 30111.2 | Defense rating | 112.313th of 30 |
| 27th of 3099.7 | Pace | 103.811th of 30 |
| 13th of 302–3 | Road vs home | 2–217th of 30 |
| 27th of 301469 | Opponent Elo | 147225th of 30 |
| 4th of 301597 | Elo rating | 148121st of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+49 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–7 | 3–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–6 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 3–6 |
| Underdog | 1–4 | — |
| Overs–unders | 5–5 | 5–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 7–5 ORL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 12.
- Nov 7BOS 110 @ ORL 123Picked ORL 60%Hit
- Apr 29ORL 89 @ BOS 120PlayoffsPicked BOS 84%Hit
- Apr 27BOS 107 @ ORL 98PlayoffsPicked BOS 73%Hit
- Apr 25BOS 93 @ ORL 95PlayoffsPicked BOS 67%Miss
- Apr 23ORL 100 @ BOS 109PlayoffsPicked BOS 80%Hit
- Apr 20ORL 86 @ BOS 103PlayoffsPicked BOS 85%Hit
- Apr 9BOS 76 @ ORL 96Picked ORL 73%Hit
- Jan 17ORL 94 @ BOS 121Picked BOS 89%Hit