Boston Celtics at Orlando Magic, NBA forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with every score and the time left. Above the line favors ORL; hover for each play.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Celtics- Jaylen BrownPoints32
- Derrick WhiteAssists10
- Jaylen BrownRebounds9
Magic- Franz WagnerPoints27
- Desmond BaneAssists7
- Paolo BancheroRebounds9
Last plays
- Q40.0End of Game110–123
- Q40.0End of the 4th Quarter110–123
- Q40.0Celtics offensive team rebound110–123
- Q40.0Payton Pritchard misses 26-foot three point jumper110–123
- Q40.5Neemias Queta enters the game for Jordan Walsh110–123
- Q40.5Celtics offensive team rebound110–123
- Q40.5Franz Wagner blocks Payton Pritchard 's 3-foot driving layup110–123
- Q42.4Jalen Suggs makes two point shot110–123
- Q44.0Jalen Suggs offensive rebound110–121
- Q47.1Jalen Suggs misses 33-foot three point jumper110–121
Turning points
The 5 plays that swung the win chance most, each judged at its own moment: the chance with the score just before it against just after.
- Q49:52Anfernee Simons makes 26-foot three point jumper (Hugo Gonzalez assists)BOS 86 – 86 ORL · BOS 32% → 45% +13BOS 32% → 45%+13 pts
- Q49:12Derrick White makes 25-foot three pointerBOS 89 – 87 ORL · BOS 41% → 55% +14BOS 41% → 55%+14 pts
- Q47:23Anfernee Simons makes 24-foot three point jumper (Jaylen Brown assists)BOS 94 – 93 ORL · BOS 36% → 51% +16BOS 36% → 51%+16 pts
- Q45:45Anthony Black makes layupBOS 96 – 97 ORL · ORL 47% → 59% +12ORL 47% → 59%+12 pts
- Q45:14Franz Wagner makes 23-foot three point jumper (Paolo Banchero assists)BOS 96 – 100 ORL · ORL 60% → 76% +17ORL 60% → 76%+17 pts
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Magic 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: NBA favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 59.4% of 433 graded games.
- Market
- ORL -3.5
- ML BOS +140 / ORL -165
- Pre-line forecast
- ORL 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- Pick ’em
- ORL 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −9.2 pts
- ORL: Elo 50.8%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- ORL -149
- BOS +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- BOS 111.5 – 115.0 ORL
- Posted spread, posted total 226.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | BOS | ORL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1609 | 1469 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +36 | Worth 36 Elo in the NBA |
| Lineups | −67 | +42 | BOS: Weaker than its recent lineups · ORL: Stronger than its recent lineups (from the box score) |
| Elo ratings | ORL +5 Elo | ORL 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ORL 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ORL 56.9% | 10% Elo, 90% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ORL 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road. Opponent Elo: how strong the teams each has played are, 1st the toughest. Offense and defense are points per 100 possessions, which sets aside how fast a team plays.
| BOS | Stat | ORL |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 30113.3 | Points scored | 116.320th of 30 |
| 1st of 30109.3 | Points allowed | 117.615th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+4.0 | Margin | −1.419th of 30 |
| 14th of 30114.1 | Offense rating | 111.523rd of 30 |
| 8th of 30110.1 | Defense rating | 112.814th of 30 |
| 29th of 3099.5 | Pace | 104.07th of 30 |
| 9th of 302–2 | Road vs home | 1–222nd of 30 |
| 26th of 301467 | Opponent Elo | 145529th of 30 |
| 2nd of 301609 | Elo rating | 146922nd of 30 |
Who's playing
Who sat out, from the box score, and what each absence cost against the lineups the team had been playing.
Celtics
−67 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Magic
+42 EloFull strength: nobody who matters sat out.
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  BOS |  ORL |
|---|---|---|
| Against the spread | 3–6 | 2–6 |
| Last 10 | 3–6 | 2–6 |
| Favorite | 2–3 | 2–6 |
| Underdog | 1–3 | — |
| Overs–unders | 4–5 | 4–4 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–5 | 4–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
BOS 7–4 ORL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 8 of 11.
- Apr 29ORL 89 @ BOS 120PlayoffsPicked BOS 84%Hit
- Apr 27BOS 107 @ ORL 98PlayoffsPicked BOS 73%Hit
- Apr 25BOS 93 @ ORL 95PlayoffsPicked BOS 67%Miss
- Apr 23ORL 100 @ BOS 109PlayoffsPicked BOS 80%Hit
- Apr 20ORL 86 @ BOS 103PlayoffsPicked BOS 85%Hit
- Apr 9BOS 76 @ ORL 96Picked ORL 73%Hit
- Jan 17ORL 94 @ BOS 121Picked BOS 89%Hit
- Dec 23BOS 104 @ ORL 108Picked BOS 76%Miss